The country's shaken ruling party today faced up to a future without veteran leader Dr Mahathir Mohamad, with two by-elections set to test its strength against the hardline Islamic opposition.

The party rallied publicly behind prime minister-in-waiting Abdullah Ahmad Badawi after Tuesday's announcement that Mahathir will step down next year, but questions remain about his ability to fill the shoes of the man who led this country for 21 years.

Mahathir's presence will be "sorely needed" in the by-elections for the parliamentary and state assembly seats in Kedah which fell vacant at the weekend with the death of PAS leader Fadzil Noor, the New Straits Times said in a commentary.

The "nettle of a post-Mahathir era must be grasped", wrote editor-in-chief Abdullah Ahmad, but added that it was still too soon for Malaysia's "beacon of unity" to take a back seat.

To understand the uncertainty over the future, analysts say, it is worth remembering that Mahathir has ruled this country since the early days in power of former US president Ronald Reagan and Britain's prime minister Margaret Thatcher.

He has been a dominating presence in the daily lives of all Malaysians as he steered the country from the backwaters of underdevelopment to the mainstream of Asian economic growth, and many find a future without him unimaginable.

Mahathir also, as the Star newspaper commented, created a multiracial "pride in being Malaysian" among the majority Malays and the large ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities.

With Mahathir leaving such a large void, some analysts express concern that "Mr Nice Guy", as Abdullah is known, could face unsettling challenges from within Umno.

Playing into opposition hands

That would play into the hands of the opposition ahead of the by-elections expected within two months and a national vote which must be held by late 2004.

PAS made strong gains among the Malay majority in 1999 elections, capitalising on discontent over Mahathir's sacking and the subsequent jailing of his popular former deputy Anwar Ibrahim.

But analysts say the tide has turned against PAS, which wants to create a theocratic Islamic state, because of fears of Islamic extremism in the wake of last year's terror attacks on the United States.

Kerk Kim Hock, DAP secretary-general told AFP the by-elections would be an acid test for this claim.

"The by-elections are in a Malay majority area. We will see if Malays have returned to Umno," he said.

PAS itself has welcomed Mahathir's decision to retire, with party vice president Mustafa Ali telling AFP it was "about time".

He said however that the 16-month transition period was a sign of weakness in the party.

"This just shows that there is no confidence in his successor," he said, adding that he felt Mahathir had a "stronger character" than Abdullah.

Abdullah has said he will continue Mahathir's policies, and Umno women's wing official Kamilia Ibrahim told AFP that this was the path he needed to follow for success.

"Umno under Abdullah should continue to strive for unity. Umno members are not complicated if you do not touch the fundamentals of the Malays. If you try to change them, then the leader will have a problem.

"An Umno leader must uphold the Malay language, religion and the affirmative action policies (which give Malays economic and educational privileges). All these must be safeguarded," she said.

An Asian diplomat said, however, it could take Abdullah "a year or two to consolidate his power.

"My impression is that he enjoys grassroot support but may be challenged by the vice presidents of Umno - Najib Razak, Muhammad Muhammad Taib or other senior leaders.

"Abdullah can perform his task. But whether party warlords will give him a chance is another matter." - AFP