Federal Court decision signals power shift
analysis
Following the Federal Court's decision today to uphold the judgment on former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim for corruption, politics in Malaysia has finally entered into an era of great power shift that may last for years.First and foremost is the reality that, barring the occurrence of any extraordinary events or incidents, the former protege of Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad for 16 years from 1982 to 1998 will be physically and somatically kept away not only from his family, but more significantly, his open supporters and secret sympathisers for a long time.
For some, with the passage of time, the memory of the 56-year-old former deputy premier, will fade and his political and ideational influences, wane. It is often said and widely believed that once one is kept out of public sight, soon he or she will also be out of public minds.
However, love or loathe him, Anwar is not just another politician.
He possesses a stoically strong personality, and he has a set of ideas that his supporters and sympathisers believe offer an alternative to 'secular' authoritarianism a la Mahathir and its opposite extreme, namely the militant Islamism epitomised by Osama bin Laden.
Above all, the fact the Anwar saga has split opinions and stirred passions not only in Malaysia, but also in Asia and the rest of the world, is rather telling of "something" in the personality and ideas of the man who was, and still probably is, seen as a political and ideational bridge between the world of Islam and Asia on one hand, and the West on the other.
Of course, the Anwar saga over the past four years has also revealed the working and dynamics of almost the entire gamut of state organs and institutions in Malaysia, both coercive and persuasive, like the anti-riot squad, secret police, security laws, courts, prison, political parties, official mass media and the diplomatic service.
In response, Anwar's supporters and sympathisers have been resorting to various measures. They took to the streets as well as cyberspace, fought legal battles, conducted prayers in mosques, churches and temples, directly appealed to the people in public forums organised by opposition parties, and lobbied international and regional opinion leaders.
In short, the Anwar saga has, positively or negatively, made the Malaysian political system more transparent. However, it has also given rise to the underlying anti-establishment forces in Malaysia.
Epoch-making situations
In the 1999 general election, for example, the once dominant party, United Malays National Organisation (Umno), was severely de-legitimised by a massive swing of Malay/Muslim votes for the predominantly-Malay/Muslim opposition coalition, namely the Barisan Alternatif.
A conservative estimate suggests that about 60 percent of the total number of Malay/Muslim voters supported the opposition in the aftermath of the sacking, arrest, detention and trials of Anwar.
Sales and credibility of the official mass media, perceived to be pro-Mahathir and anti-Anwar has also dropped drastically.
The decision of the Federal Court to dismiss Anwar's appeal was made against several backdrops which are potentially epoch-making in Malaysian politics:
One, the impending 'retirement' of Anwar's nemesis, namely Mahathir, 76, who is loved and loathed
in extremis
and who still prides himself as a "good (read: democratic) dictator";
Two, the potential instability in Umno as the result of the ascendance of the relatively weaker, real or perceived, personality and leadership of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, 65, and possible power-jostling among the three elected vice-presidents of the party and their supporters;
Three, the rise of the more assertive, energetic and populist leadership in PAS under Abdul Hadi Awang, 54, who is also the Terengganu menteri besar, a three-term member of parliament and holder of a master's degree in Islamic Jurisprudence from Egypt's Al-Azhar University; and
Four, the psychologically de-stabilising and disorientating effects of globalising forces such as use of the English language, commercialisation of mass media and higher education, and the widely perceived arrogance of Western powers vis-a-vis Islam that appear to threaten the religio-cultural identity of a significant number of Malay/Muslims who are also now politically divided into three competitive political parties.
With the politics of Muslims who constitute about 60 percent of the Malaysian population in a state of flux, the fear, real or merely felt, of the non-Muslims correspondingly increases. The fear of Malaysia being 'Islamised', or its states turned increasingly into an Islamic Malay polity, is also threatening the security of non-Muslims with regards to their identity.
The political competition among the different factions in Chinese Malaysian politics as represented by MCA, Gerakan and the opposition party DAP, if not conducted or managed with prudence and wisdom by their top leaders, is potentially disruptive of inter-ethnic and inter-religious relations, in the post-Mahathir and possibly post-Anwar period.
The political future of Malaysia, while still not a cause of security alarm as Indonesia's was in 1998, is certainly a cause for active concern.
The above analysis appears in BBC Online .
JAMES WONG WING ON, 40, is the Chief Analyst for Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM) which produces the subscriber-based political report, Analysis Malaysia . A former member of parliament (1990-1995) and columnist with the Sin Chew Jit Poh Chinese daily, he read political science and economics in Monash University, Australia. He is completing his master's degree in Strategic and Defence Studies at Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur.
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