BN in the lead, Pakatan banking on young voters

At the halfway mark, the results Hulu Selangor by-election is still anybody’s guess but most observers believe that BN has a slight lead over PKR.

        

This is because PKR’s campaign started on the back foot with its candidate Zaid Ibrahim ( left ) stumbling over allegations that he was a kaki botol (alcoholic) and that he was involved in gambling.

Since the allegations surfaced, Zaid’s credibility has taken a beating particularly among the Malays voters, as the majority have a rural conservative upbringing.

Top guns from PKR and its Pakatan Rakyat allies have been scrambling to his defence, saying his brush with booze and race horses were a thing of the past, and that Umno is perpetuating far worse .

Improving its standing in the Malay electorate, who make up 35,000 or 54 percent of the total voters, is crucial to PKR’s campaign as it depended mostly on the overwhelming support from the Chinese and Indian voters to win the seat by a sliver of a margin in 2008.

Moreover, there were 1,776 spoilt votes, mostly from Malay areas which a clear indication that a sizeable portion of voters were unhappy with both parties.

Based on the 2008 general elections results, PKR insiders estimate that the party only managed to garner 43 percent support from the Malays, but secured 60 percent of the Chinese vote and 40 percent of the Indian votes.

Fishing for Felda votes

                            

Ground reports suggest that an intense battle is taking shape in the four Federal Land Development (Felda) settlements of Kg Soeharto, Kg Gedangsa, Kg Sungai Tengi and Kg Sungai Tengi Selatan.

Felda settlers are traditionally staunch BN supporters though in 2008, PKR managed to garner a respectable 5,800 votes against BN’s 6,900 votes in all four areas combined.

But complicating game plan for both BN and PKR is the fact that the bulk of the spoilt votes came from Kg Sungai Tengi - the most developed of the four villages.

Given the recent volatility of the voting sentiments, top leaders from both sides have been pulling out all the stops in this area.

Pakatan leaders have been zeroing in on national issues, such as corruption and the federal government’s flirtation with Jewish-linked public relations firm Apco Worldwide.

Other than questioning Zaid’s morality, BN leaders are attempting to paint PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim ( left) as a power crazy traitor to the country.

Voters who spoke to Malaysiakini however showed nonchalance towards national issues or character attacks but instead wanting to hear promises over bread and butter issues.     

Ideals versus basic needs

One Felda settler, Mohd Alwai Abdullah said he used to be a PKR supporter but since the party took over Selangor, he felt let down.

“I asked for a loan for a sugar cane juice extractor and I didn’t get it... I have lost confidence in PKR. I didn’t get help from them,” he said.

PKR ally PAS, tasked with breaking Umno’s stranglehold on the Felda settlements have been actively performing house-to-house visits and small rallies at night, said Terengganu PAS elections director Ariffin Deraman.

“Felda is a BN stronghold. Umno will tell the settlers that they are ungrateful should they not vote for BN. We will explain to them that it is the government’s responsibility to help the people and we can do better,” said Ariffin.

According to Rumah Awam 2 Umno branch chairperson Nor Mohamad Badaruddin, PAS and PKR’s attempt to fish for votes would be ineffective because the Pakatan state government has not done enough in the area over the past two years.

“The Felda settlers are aware, that there has been no development brought by the PKR-led state government. They are only dishing out ‘maggi mee’ now,” he said, using the colloquial term for handouts, infrastructure upgrades and other ‘goodies’ given during election time.

Nor Mohamad is confident that BN currently has 60 percent of the Felda vote in the bag and the aim now is to increase it to 80 percent.

Non-Malays likely to side Zaid

Given the difficulties in securing the Malay vote, PKR is banking on the Chinese and Indian voters to pull them through.

It is understood that PKR, with the help of DAP, are aiming very ambitiously to secure 75 percent of the Chinese vote, which makes up 26.7 percent of the electorate.

This should not be a difficult task for the opposition because Zaid is generally respected among the Chinese for his liberal views and reformist approach.

MCA sources said that the party is struggling to maintain 30 to 35 percent support from Chinese voters.

Their campaign is said to be hampered by Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s ( left ) proclamation that he is “Malay first” and Selangor Umno deputy chief Noh Omar’s speech where he said the Chinese and Indians should be grateful for their citizenship.

Both individuals have been rarely spotted in Chinese areas during the campaign.

 

The party is also facing a hard time defending the federal government over Thai pathologist Pornthip Rojanasunand's claim that the government was exerting pressure on her to pull out from the Teoh Beng Hock inquest.

Efforts are also underway for PKR to secure at least 60 percent of the Indian vote, but this is proving to be a challenge as ground reports suggest that Najib’s effort to reach out to the Indian community, attending Hindu festivals and attempts to handle the Maika shares controversy, had struck a chord with the Indian voters.

Personality war

A potential snag for PKR is the fact that most young voters are residing in cities and might not journey home to vote. Based on a 2008 general election analysis, young voters were more inclined towards supporting the opposition.

It is estimated that the majority of young voters are currently residing in the nearby industrial town of Tanjung Malim and Kuala Lumpur, and would be able to relate to Zaid’s message for reform.

To the rural folk of Hulu Selangor, BN is going on a warpath against Zaid, branding him as an elitist - at times showcasing his lush Petaling Jaya bungalow as proof - in sharp contrast with the more affable P Kamalanathan who has been winning praise for his trademark toothy smile.

Despite the setbacks, Zaid cannot be written off because of he carries with him the image of a successful Malay lawyer and reformer who would rather resign as the de facto law minister than to compromise on his principles.

In contrast, his opponent P Kamalanathan , not content with being relatively unknown, is also refusing to spell out his stand on national or current affair issues like how a lawmaker should.

Instead, the public relations consultant is more keen on promising voters to meeting basic needs of his constituents such as housing, clothing, welfare, education and health.