The Gaya by-election in Sabah tomorrow is not so much about who is going to win, for that may be a foregone conclusion, but rather what the margin of votes will be, especially the percentage of voter turnout.

If the turnout of last year's Likas state by-election is any indication, tomorrow's turnout may be no different.

Likas is one of the two state seats in the Gaya parliamentary constituency. Tomorrow is the third time Likas voters will cast their votes in three years that is, an average of once a year.

One thing that all three candidates BN's Liew Teck Chan, DAP's Dr Hiew King Cheu and Keadilan's Christina Liew agree is that they do not expect a high voter turnout. Hiew is perhaps the most optimistic, expecting a 50 to 60 percent turnout.

The rest? "They're either not interested or not around," he said.

Even so, the candidates, their party workers and campaigners are not only knocking on all doors to homes and offices to talk about issues of the day but also to persuade people to come out to vote.

BN optimistic

In the last parliamentary elections in 1999, the percentage of voter turnout was 58 percent. But this being a by-election, according to BN's Liew, a vice president of Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), the turnout could be "quite low".

He should know, being an old hand at helping his boss SAPP president and former Sabah chief minister Yong Teck Lee organise so many election campaigns in the past, and whose judgment of voter behaviour has been proven to be quite accurate.

Unlike his opponents, Liew however thinks the BN has been able to address various issues that have cropped up and which both DAP and Keadilan waste little precious time capitalising on. He is optimistic of victory but is not prepared to be drawn into saying what the margin will be.

When Yong stood on a BN ticket in the 1999 general election, he secured 15,315 votes, beating his nearest rival, the then opposition PBS' Johnny Goh by a margin of 4,117.

If PBS, now part of the ruling BN, can hold on to most of their support from the electorate in Gaya (which is made up of Likas and Inanam state constituencies), and the same for SAPP, then that will give the BN's total tally at between 26,000 and 27,000 votes, based on a 58 percent turnout.

But PBS leaders have indicated they will be more than happy if two-thirds of those who voted their candidate in 1999 will vote for the BN candidate this time.

This means an addition of about 7,250 votes for the BN, on top of the figure that Yong secured last time something which political analysts have predicted is possible, given the machinery and resources of the BN.

People's anger

On the other hand, with local or state matters forming the by-election issues, transcending ethnicity of the voting community, rather than national issues such as the economy, this could draw away votes from traditional BN ground.

DAP's Hiew said the prevalence of local issues is an indication of the people's anger at what is going on with the state government.

"Even though this is a parliamentary and not a state by-election, the issues are nearly always all local and they show how unhappy the people are," he added.

For example, he said Chief Minister Chong Kah Kiat had just announced a reduction in house assessment would take place in Likas and Manggatal.

"Why does this not apply to all households in the areas under the whole jurisdiction of the Kota Kinabalu City Council?" he asked.

Keadilan's Christina hoped voter turnout tomorrow will be higher than during last year's Likas by-election.

"We're going round persuading them to come out and vote," she said.

Christina, her voice coarse after speaking practically non-stop to voters the past two weeks, said whatever the verdict of the electorate, the party will accept it.