The sizeable Orang Asli community may emerge as kingmaker in the by-election for the Galas state constituency, said analyst and UCSI University lecturer Ong Kian Ming.

Chief among concerns for Orang Asli voters is the Orang Asli Affairs Department’s instruction to issue a stop-work order on a church and the demolition of another church in the adjacent constituency of Nengiri.

ong kian ming 271010 “I expect this to be made into some sort of issue... when we talk about 15 percent of the votes it is enough to swing the outcome,” said Ong at a lecture on the Galas and Batu Sapi by-election and the Sarawak election at UCSI University, Kuala Lumpur, last night.

Based on the latest electoral roll that he has obtained, it is observed that the Orang Asli make up 15 percent of the 11,553-strong electorate in Galas.

Some 9.5 percent of the voters comprise members of the Temiar tribe.

Going by election results in 1999, 2004 and 2008, the community has largely voted for BN.

In view of the wafer-thin margin recorded in 2008, even a five percent swing by the Orang Asli community could determine the victor in the by-election on Nov 4.

Ong pointed out that 55 percent of the Orang Asli are classified as of ‘no religion’ by the Election Commission and that it is safe to assume that many are Christians who can be influenced by the Nengiri church row.

He also predicted that the success of an Orang Asli land claim against the Selangor government, known as the Sagong Tasi case, will influence the native community’s voters in Galas.

Numbers against Ku Li

Ong disagreed with popular perception that getting Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah to lead the charge for BN will be a major boost for the coalition’s candidate, Abdul Aziz Yusof.

Based on 2008 election figures, Razaleigh retained the Gua Musang parliamentary constituency despite a sizeable dip in votes from the Galas state constituency.

I NONE n fact, Razaleigh (left) , popularly known as Ku Li, polled only 47 percent in Galas but still won the Gua Musang seat thanks to high level of support in the adjoining state seats of Paloh and Nengiri.

“Ku Li knows this. He knows the numbers, which is why he declined to be the candidate. He knows that if he stands, there is a good chance that he could lose,” said Ong.

In view of the figures, Ong argued that the Razaleigh factor may not be as powerful as has been speculated.

“So, to think that Ku Li can swing this election, just by the force of his personality, is a little bit naive,” he said.

Ong said he does not expected a major swing in the Chinese votes for BN, which hovered at about 45 percent in 2008. Instead, he expects this to dip by about 5 percent.

He indicated that PAS’ Dr Zulkefli Mohamad should be able to keep the seat with a small majority, following the party’s unexpected win over BN in 2008 by a 646-vote majority.

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