PREDICTION Tomorrow, Jan 30, and just four days before Chinese New Year, voters in Tenang will decide on the 14th by-election since the 2008 general election.

The outcome is not in doubt. BN will win this seat. Even the opposition has conceded as much. The only question that remains is BN’s winning majority and why the margin may (or may not) be important in the larger electoral picture.

Like most analysts and observers, I anticipate a higher vote margin for the BN than in 2008 as a reflection of the larger national trend of voters moving back to the BN in 2010, especially the Malay and Indian voters...