Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who came to power 22 years ago when Ronald Reagan was a rookie president of the United States, is expected to cut through the praise-singing at his final party conference this week with a stark warning about the future.

The man who has been credited with guiding Malaysia from the economic backwaters into the mainstream of Asian development has never minced his words and is unlikely to do so as he prepares to hand over power to his chosen successor, Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

He will warn in his opening address Thursday of the need for unity among the majority Malay population in the face of a growing threat to his ruling United Malays National Organisation (Umno) from an Islamic fundamentalist opposition party, insiders say.

And he is likely to return to a theme he has hammered at in recent years: The Malays must learn to stand on their own feet without the special priviliges they have enjoyed as the government tried to make them more competitive with the economically dominant Chinese minority.

One year ago, Mahathir, 77, threw the last Umno annual assembly into pandemonium when he unexpectedly announced his resignation. The party faithful begged him to stay on and he finally agreed to do so until October this year.

Vision for the future

Government-supporting newspapers have cautioned the more than 2,000 delegates to the assembly that Mahathir does not want to be swamped by a praise-fest, but they are unlikely to be heeded given the almost mythical status the premier has attained during his two decades in power.

As his chosen successor, Abdullah, 63, is also expected to present a vision for the future at the assembly, which party sources say will include a wake-up call telling members that there is no guarantee that UMNO will remain in power indefinitely.

Umno has led a coalition of ethnic Malay, Chinese and Indian parties in the ruling National Front since independence from Britain in 1957, but Abdullah is expected to warn that complacency could see the party lose its political grip, The Star newspaper said Tuesday.

General elections must be called by the end of 2004, with the main challenge expected from the PAS. However, there is widespread speculation they could be held much earlier to capitalise on Mahathir's legacy.

Both Mahathir and Abdullah have expressed concern over burgeoning infighting within Umno and the fear that a party power struggle may emerge when the premier steps down.

No surprises

Analysts say the jostling for position does not threaten Abdullah at this stage but focuses on the new team he will bring to a country where political ambitions have been made or broken for so long by Mahathir.

Umno was due to hold elections for party officials at this year's conference, but postponed them in a move designed to reduce squabbling and ensure a smooth transition of power.

National University of Malaysia political scientist P Ramasamy said this year's meeting would centre on Mahathir's plan to step down and on who would be Abdullah's deputy.

Defence Minister Najib Razak, a senior Umno vice-president, is eyeing the post, and has already received a public nod from Mahathir, although the premier says it is not his decision to make.

Ramasamy said he does not expect any suprises at this conference, although there has been constant speculation that Mahathir would not carry out his decision to quit.

"If I renege on my promise (to step down in October), my leadership will no longer be credible," the veteran prime minister has said. -- AFP