ANALYSIS While incumbent PAS deputy president Nasharuddin Mat Isa seems confident of his chances of being re-elected, political analyst Mohammad Agus Yusoff believes that his challenger, former vice-president Mohamad Sabu, has the upper hand.

"From my observations, I think that the groundswell of support is with Mohamad Sabu.

"This is because the members want change, they want to see a new direction in the party's struggle," the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia political scientist told Malaysiakini .

He argued that many of those who want to see change and new developments in the Islamic party see the vocal activist as capable of doing so, unlike the more sedate Nasharuddin.

NONE Mohamad Sabu (right in photo) has also been gathering support from among the Erdogans (reformists) and ulama in the unity government faction, enticing them with his firebrand leadership, promising an 'activist' platform to unite the factions and inject new life into the party.

As of now, Agus notes, there are three viewpoints among party members in the race for the number two post.

The first are those who are still living in nostalgia, those who still see things being divided between the Erdogans and the ulama groups. Most of these will vote based on such distinctions.

The second viewpoint, which straddles the Erdogan-ulama divide, involves those who believe that the current leadership is weak and needs to be changed. It is this groundswell that Mohamad Sabu is riding on.

And it is this group which is the most vocal, with members expressing themselves in blogs, online and in daily discussions, said Agus.

Mirage or reality, hanging question

dr mohammad agus yusoff However, Agus (left) warns that such support, while highly visible, may not directly translate into votes.

The third view, he says, questions the need to change the current deputy president, especially since the ulama have always made up the leadership of PAS.

This group, he contends, still supports the incumbent deputy president.

Perhaps relying on this basis of support, Nasharuddin himself appears unfazed by the mounting support for his rival.

Talking to reporters on Wednesday, the deputy president said he has taken on and defeated top flight PAS leaders before and does not see any reason to fear anybody this time around.

nasharuddin mat isa pc 120106 apprehension Nasharuddin (right) also rubbished reports that his rival has garnered more nominations than him, and remains confident that his situation is tenable.

Candidates qualified to contest for top posts in the Islamic party will have until May 26 to accept their nominations via post, SMS or fax.

The list of those who qualified was announced on Wednesday, while letters have been sent to individual candidates and a notice published in the party organ, Harakah .

All told, six candidates have qualified for the party's number two post, with Mohamad Sabu and Nasharuddin touted as favourites.

Dark horse spoilers in the wings

Two others, Kelantan exco member Husam Musa and vice-president Salahuddin Ayub, have declined to contest.

Husam is said to have thrown his support behind Mohamad Sabu, with his division nominating the activist leader for the deputy presidency, while Salahuddin is keen on defending his vice-president's post.

However, two dark horses remain, Kedah Menteri Besar Azizan Abdul Razak and party disciplinary committee head Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man.

While both have so far not expressed interest in contesting, indications are that their tune may change.

If they do decide to run, it would open a new dynamic in the fight for the deputy presidency.