The contest in Penang during the next general election is expected to be "keen and tough", said a senior leader from the ruling Gerakan party in the island state.

State executive councillor in charge of education, economic planning and human resource development, D r Toh Kin Woon ( left ) said voters there are known to be capable of mood swings that can make any electoral outcome unpredictable.

Up for grabs in Penang are 40 state seats and 13 parliamentary seats, all of which are expected to be hotly contested. These include the seven new state seats and two new parliamentary seats created by the Election Commission in its recent redelineation exercise.

While the redelineation exercise and the easy access to development funds in BN-held constituencies will work in the ruling coalition's favour, Toh said there are however a number of problems.

"Intra-party squabbles (remnants of MCA Team A versus Team B struggles for the largesse of political office) and inter-party conflict between Gerakan and MCA are among these problems," he wrote in the latest issue of the monthly magazine Aliran

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Tension within ruling coalition

Gerakan and MCA - both rival parties in the BN coalition - are expected to try to outdo each other in the next elections for the right to rule the Chinese-majority state.

MCA, which has benefitted from two defections from Gerakan three years ago, now holds 11 state seats while its rival has eight.

Three days after the 1999 general election, Gerakan's Lim Boo Chang (Dato Keramat) and Lim Chien Aun (Bayan Lepas) crossed over to MCA. However, despite having a higher number of seats, MCA failed in its bid to claim the chief ministership.

"There will be a contest between the two parties for the right to contest in Dato Keramat and Bayan Lepas, a bigger share of the additional seats; and ultimately, the post of chief minister," said Toh.

He added that the recent decision by MCA to lift the suspension on Lim and Tan Cheng Liang (Jawi) for their abstention last year in an opposition motion to delay the implementation of a controversial road project in the state assembly is "likely to raise the tension between the two parties further".

Gerakan, angered by the behaviour of the two MCA politicians, will be arguing that the duo be banned from contesting in the next elections.

Abdullah needs 'convincing victory'

The veteran politician also said that Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's ascendance to the premiership is likely to help BN's electoral prospects.

Toh, who is the state representative for Machang Bubuk, said Abdullah will need a convincing victory in the polls to strengthen his own position within Umno and boost his image internationally.

"Anything less convincing, say a failure by BN to obtain a two-thirds majority in the parliamentary election, may weaken his position within his own party. Coming from Penang, a convincing victory in his own state is even more critical."

According to Toh, Penang will be won and lost on the "inter-play of national, state-wide and local issues".

"The performance of the economy; availability of tertiary educational opportunities; and national security and personal safety especially of women are among some of these factors. Still others include the availability or otherwise of democratic space and Islamisation versus secularism," said the former economics lecturer.

Toh expected that among the hot local issues to be raised during the election campaign are the controversial building of a mega-columbarium - a 'hotel for the dead' which holds 300,000 urns - and the much criticised Penang Outer Ring Road (PORR) project.

Keadilan's strong presence

The Gerakan politician said he expected to retain his state seat but with a reduced majority.

"Following the recent redelineation, this constituency is more mixed than before: Malays 40%; Chinese 51% and Indians 9% now versus Malays 33%, Chinese 58% and Indians 9% previously."

He said given Parti Keadilan Rakyat's (Keadilan) strong presence in the constituency, the winning margin - which is already reduced from 5,000 plus to just over 2,000 in 1999 - will be further slashed to just over a thousand votes.

"A shift of a few hundred votes from BN to the opposition in the next election will spell trouble for the BN," he warned.

However, the 59-year-old politician, known for his outspoken views, did not give any indication whether he would be defending his seat in the coming elections.