If elections are held today, BN is expected to retain 120 parliamentary seats, Pakatan Rakyat 70 with 24 constituencies considered grey, according to Prof Shamsul Amri Baharuddin.

Malaysia's total parliamentary constituencies number 222, for which  elections must be called before June.

dr shamsul amri Shamsul, ( left) told Sinar Harian he expects the BN to win 120 seats and possibly more, enough to retain the administration with a simple majority of at least 112 seats.

"BN will win a minimum of 120 seats, and possibly raise its tally but it is unlikely to be lower than 120," said Shamsul, the director of the Ethnic Studies Institute at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia.

He said that his analysis is based on a study done in September and expects to undertake another next month taking into account the October and November impact from the tabling of the budget 2013.

Shamsul expects the Budget 2013's Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia funds disbursed in January and February plus civil servants' one and half months bonus to further help enhance the BN's chances of boosting its existing tally of 120 seats.

Political landscape heading for change?

At present the BN has 137 seats, PKR (23), DAP (29), PAS (22) and Parti Socialist Malaysia (one), Independent (8) and Parti Kesejahteraan Insan Tanah Air (1).

One seat fell vacant with the death of Titiwangsa MP Dr Lo'Lo Ghazali.

Parliament's mandate expires on April 28 next year, after which the Election Commission has 60 days to call for elections which is expected to be the toughest one after the BN's 2008 poor showing when its two-third majority slipped from its grip.

NONE DAP parliamentary leader Lim Kit Siang ( right ) had said the 13th general election could go either way .

Shamsul said the opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat believes it can win 109 seats with many expecting the traditional BN redoubt of Johor to give up quite a number.

"However, it would still be not enough to form the government as 112 seats are needed to have a simple majority.

Hence BN is expected to retain the government albeit with a reduced majority," he said.