COMMENT Later today, the prime minister is scheduled to give his ‘state of the union’ address. Although not touted as such, the so-called ‘presidential style’ of the Najib Abdul Razak administration is said to be a winning factor for the BN ahead of the 13th general election.

There is no need to go over old ground as to whether a presidential style is a winning formula. We will soon find out when Malaysians go to the polls.

But what is more troubling will be the rising temperature as competition for every vote becomes more intense, and for some quarters, more desperate.

Key personalities have already sounded the alarm. Former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad has said that Kedah will make up for parliamentary seats lost in Sabah and Sarawak.

azlan Umno deputy president Muhyiddin Yassin (left) has said the BN’s weakness is not only due to Umno but to the component parties as well.

The Malacca chief minister reminded Malaysians not to blame BN for the Sulu incursion into Lahad Datu, Sabah.

Never before has the federal ruling coalition been so embattled. Past general elections were easy to contest but this time round, after more than half a century governing, the world’s longest-ruling political coalition is in uncharted waters.

There are five reasons why this situation has come about.

japan occupation of malaysia world war 2 060508 Its longevity is a reason for its weakness. A new generation has grown up taking the present state of development as a given. No one below the age of 75 has any real experience of the deprivations of the Japanese Occupation. Nobody below the age of 70 can remember the fight for Independence. All of those under the age of 50 have had a reasonably good life.

In short, present-day BN leaders, including the PM, are not old enough to claim credit for the things the Alliance Party achieved. This general shift means that the element of ‘gratitude’ no longer wins votes. For those under 40, it means nothing at all.

The second reason for the present state of affairs has to do with BN leaders who have lost touch with current aspirations of Malaysians. The PM is exhorting reforms like his predecessor but every step of the way, the conservatives who dislodged Abdullah Ahmad Badawi have stymied the PM’s 1Malaysia programme.

azlan This explains Najib’s ‘presidential style’ because he is unable to get his own party to take ownership of the 1Malaysia policy.

Najib is seeking his own mandate based on the 1Malaysia platform, which he says is transforming Malaysia into a developed state but even he is unable to define what 1Malaysia really means.

All Najib is able to say is that 1Malaysia is deliberately vague in order to be inclusive. Any government policy that is vague and implemented tentatively is doomed to fail.

Lost opportunity

The third argument has to do with BN’s ethnic politics. The BN formula is based upon immovable boundaries with the Malays as the ‘backbone’ of the governing class. Whenever any component party member suggests modifications, conservative elements attack that individual and his party with such aggression that it borders on fanaticism.

barisan nasional bn 181110 When that individual or his party backs down, it weakens the BN. So, the reason why the component parties are riddled with problems and are weak is because conservative elements in Umno have cut them off at their knees. They cannot help but genuflect, all too clearly for us to see.

Herein lies a lost opportunity. After the 2008 general election, there was  a suggestion to strengthen the BN supreme council as a first step towards the gradual dissolution of the ethnic based component parties.

The proposal died in the water perhaps it was too radical but the BN could have demonstrated real change if it had followed through with Abdul Razak Hussein’s vision of political union of all BN component parties. Not a melting pot, but a functioning tapestry.

Fourth is the war of ideas. The BN may have the power of incumbency and all the economic might on its side but ultimately elections are won by good and well-tested ideas.

Instead, the BN is dithering and all it can offer is a friendlier face of ethnic politics. With incumbency comes the power to implement policies. If the BN actually knew what it wanted, it would have been able to implement its ideas better.

NONE The reality is that the BN does not think its model needs reform or changing. Mahathir, for example, still thinks that Malaysians respond to the narrowest and basest instincts of race, religion and personality. The BN, with its good track record of governing the different races, is the “devil you know”. Its own 50 years of building a nation bears no imprint on the average Malaysian.

We are all still driven by our primordial need to put race, religion and personal interests ahead. If that is true, the BN has failed miserably in its half a century of stewardship. The reality is that there is no contest of ideas here. If 1Malaysia is ever to be achieved, the BN is not the political coalition to do it.

Another bedrock idea of the BN is development, which is often defined as material progress though not always so. To an older generation, this may be true. But today, with an entire generation that have grown up with malls and multinational brands, things are beginning to sparkle less to the eye.

Fighting against the tide

Dr Chandra Muzaffar, one-time critic of Mahathir’s BN, said that voters must vote rationally and not be swayed by emotions. We should reward the BN with our votes for developing Malaysia to where it is today. But voters must also take into account the excesses of the ruling elite.

tunku abdul rahman 290809 The question here is whether we can so readily equate present-day leaders of the BN with their predecessors like Tunku Abdul Rahman (right) or VT Sambanthan. This is especially so when the children of our founding fathers, with the exceptions of Najib and Hishammuddin Hussein, have abandoned the BN political platform.

In the war of ideas, the BN is fighting against the tide. Whilst the PM is trying to go with the flow with the 1Malaysia programme, others are digging in their heels by saying and doing all they can to prevent it from coming true.

One cannot enter the battlefield with generals waving different flags and giving out conflicting signals. The BN should be careful it does not lead its troops into the opposition bench.

The last reason is a very simple one. The opposition has achieved a first and rare coalition that has held together and is fully functional. It would not be too bad if they won a few more states and not win Putrajaya. In short, it has less to lose than the BN.

NONE Another term as Opposition Leader might be the end of Anwar Ibrahim but he can be credited with the same role Onn Jaafar did for Umno. He too never became PM. But if a change in political power is inevitable, Pakatan Rakyat’s time may have finally arrived.

The BN has thrown everything at this opposition coalition. Money to get the weakest links to declare themselves Independents, bringing down an elected state government, court cases ranging from defamation to sodomy; anti-corruption investigations, smear campaigns and even violent crackdowns.

Pakatan Rakyat is a coalition forged in the white heat of political competition and its members have a steely resolve to dislodge the BN from political power. It is here to stay and if it wins enough seats to dislodge the BN, we may be entering a new phase of a two-coalition system. Not bad to keep politicians on their toes!

azlan The PM will no doubt sing the praises of the Government Transformation Programme, about how well Malaysia is doing in the teeth of the global financial crisis and how Vision 2020 is within reach.

It is almost as though he is preparing the ground for the 14th general election when the BN can look back to this moment of glory and accuse the ruling Pakatan coalition of ruining the party.

Only one thing is clear, the fate of the BN and Pakatan will soon pass out of their hands. It is those of us on the ground who will decide whether these are the closing days of the BN’s golden era.

Next: Why the stakes are so high

NEIL KHOR completed his PhD at Cambridge University and now writes occasionally on matters that he thinks require better historical treatment. He is quietly optimistic about Malaysia's future. This article kicks off a series exploring key issues as GE13 approaches.