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Pakatan may win on popular votes, but not seats

Published:  |  Modified:

YOURSAY 'All these surveys don't mean anything if electoral fraud, cash handouts and intimidation are not kept to the minimum.'

43pct back Anwar as PM, 39pct for Najib

your say Jiminy Qrikert: "In terms of Malay respondents, Najib's rating had dropped by 18 points while Anwar's rating had rose by nine points," according to the Universiti Malaya's Democratic and Election Centre (Umcedel) survey.

This statement is very telling once we take into consideration that in any effort to track trends, trending trajectory allows a safe assumption that in the short term, the current direction of the trend will extend, that is, since this survey was done in early April with polling day just a little more than a week away, it means Najib will continue to lose Malay support up till May 5 while Anwar will continue to gain.

Chinese support for Pakatan Rakyat continues to grow with fence-sitters opting for Pakatan intensified further by the Registrar of Societies (ROS) fiasco.

What the survey hasn't been able to cover is the state of the Indian support since Perkasa leader Zulkifli Nordin was named BN candidate for Shah Alam. However, it would be safe to assume that Indians are also abandoning BN for Pakatan.

It is reasonable to conclude that in this last week to polling day, Pakatan is winning the effort to convert voters across all races over to its side.

Clever Voter: All these survey don't mean anything if electoral fraud, cash handouts and intimidation are not kept to the minimum.

No one disagrees that even without survey, opposition certainly has the edge in social media battle, while BN machinery is focusing on media mainstream. Turnouts at ceramahs may be an indicator but anything can happen.

Eight more days of campaign can still make a difference.

Kim Quek: This Umcedel survey shows a trend of public opinion whereby BN declines while the opposition climbs in popular support as election approaches - which is a phenomenon that characterised the 2008 election.

If the 2008 precedent holds true, we should see an even steeper movement of such trend in the closing days of this election. I wouldn't exclude an avalanche of sort as election fever reaches a climax.

Fair Play: Assuming that the survey is reliable and that 43% support Pakatan leader Anwar Ibrahim versus 39% for caretaker PM Najib Razak, there is an even chance at this crucial stage of the election campaign that Pakatan might be elected to power.

I'm wondering what is going on inside the minds of those who had done harm to Anwar? Can they sleep peacefully at night for the next eight nights or so?

Anonymous #21828131: The longer the campaign period, the better it is for PKR. Umno has exhausted all its trump cards by dominating the MSM (mainstream media) all the TV stations including paid ads on Astro, and it is beginning to backfire on BN.

By polling day, people would be so fed up with BN that even if they were BN supporters they would have changed their minds.

Chin_2e46: If the truth be told, all candidates running for election have no choice but to make an effort to be approachable.

But I must confess that I find Najib's demeanour insincere. I just can't bear to see his face or hear his rhetoric when he addresses an audience.

In stark contrast, Anwar speaks with absolute commitment and passion, never mind the sincerity part. But the man has truly suffered, and I would want to believe that his tribulations have made him a better man than he was before his fall from grace.

Many Malaysians are pinning their hopes on him to make ‘ubah' a reality this GE13.

Survey: BN, Pakatan in 'neck and neck race' to May 5

Bender: The rakyat's sentiment is quite clear. The neck-to-neck hypothesis is only valid based on the assumption that BN will play fair. The fact, however, is that BN will not play fair.

Najib himself has declared that BN will defend Putrajaya at all cost (a statement that shows him to be an authoritarian rather than a democratic leader). Plus what is so obvious from so much evidence (which the authorities like the EC, MACC and PDRM have systematically ignored) is that there are a lot of funny business going on regarding the election.

Some if I may mention include the daylight and continuous bribery of the public by Najib, the bombing at BN ceramah (weirdly, PDRM sprung into action quite promptly in this case but kept dragging its feet at similar hooliganisms at Pakatan's ceramah - also weird is the fact that BN also busy with ceramah despite controlling all mainstream media) and the increased excitement shown by non-citizens as the polling day approaches. Not to mention, vote-rigging activities.

Headhunter: It looks like Pakatan is heading for the tape ahead of the BN. With nightly well-attended ceramah ahead by Pakatan, the numbers should improve further as Pakatan is reaching to more and more people.

BN has nothing to offer except freebies and intimidation by their mat rempits and petrol-bombing squads. The latest bombings are not going to help them at all. If anything, it really put decent people off.

Cala: Let us be clear of something, that is, some sort of survey is better than no survey. But this pre-13th general election survey is not convincing at all based on three grounds.

First, the methodology of the survey is not described, thus making any attempt to replicate it difficult. In other words, this is not a scientific survey.

Second, everyone knows that from past knowledge, ethnicity matters. For example, Malay voters tend to vote for BN, while non-Malays most likely to support Pakatan. A more realistic way is to adopt stratified randomnized survey method that reflect the composition of ethnicity.

Third, rural and urban voters too displayed some differences. But Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman's survey makes no mention of this fact. In sum, predicting the outcome of an election is a complicated affair in the light of several variables involved.

A more prudent approach is using several research methods, both qualitative and quantitative. But the outcome is anything but certain.

Kee Thuan Chye: This survey is useless without the inputs of respondents from Sabah and Sarawak.

And if it is only from Peninsular voters, the outlook is not good for Pakatan if the difference between it and BN is only 5 percent. In 2008, Pakatan had already got more of the popular vote than BN in the peninsula.

Clearwater: My absolute fear is that Pakatan will win the popular vote, notwithstanding polls cheating by the other side, but will still not win enough seats to form the next government.

Then we have a political nightmare with an unpopular government trying to impose its will upon the people.


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