ANALYSIS Days before the elections for the Umno vice-presidency - the most hotly-contested post in the party - there are indications that former Malacca chief minister Mohd Ali Rustam may mount an upset win by taking one of the three posts, alongside incumbents Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Shafie Apdal.

NONE Ahmad Zahid ( left ), whose popularity is believed to have soared since the Prevention of Crime (Amendment and Extension) Act 2013 was introduced and passed in Parliament, coupled with his tough stance on various national issues - is widely expected to come up trumps along with fellow incumbent Shafie, who will rely on the huge Sabah Umno vote bank.

However, what was initially seen as a race between Defence Minister Hishammuddin Hussein and Kedah Menteri Besar Mukhriz Mahathir for the other vice-president's posts has thrown a surprise in the form of Mohd Ali, who handed in his nomination papers to contest the post at the eleventh hour.

In fact, an analyst who is a well-known senior academic at a local university and who declined to be named, said that it is Mohd Ali who has been making up ground, and even might end up tallying the second highest number of votes in the race - with Zahid expected to take the highest.

This, the analyst pointed out, could be how the race will end, barring a last-minute movement on the ground in the next few days ahead of balloting on Saturday morning by 146,000 Umno voters in 191 party divisions.

Tough guy image

NONE It is understood that Mohd Ali's blaming of the Chinese community for his election loss in Bukit Katil has actually resonated with the Umno grassroots, who believe that the former CM was "betrayed", resulting in his defeat.

Mohd Ali ( left ) gaining votes from delegates for the vice-president's race will indicate the obvious conservative sentiment among the Umno grassroots. Apart from that, Ali is seen as being friendly and approachable by many party members.

Ahmad Zahid, the home minister, has been singing a similar right-wing tune as Mohd Ali, shoring up Malay sentiments and portraying them as victims of crime during his recent controversial speech at a gathering in Malacca.

But Ahmad Zahid's increasing popularity in the party is, according to the analyst, putting a dent on Hishammuddin's bid to retain his post.

"The writing is on the wall," the analyst said curtly when asked about Hishammuddin's chances.

This is because Ahmad Zahid is being seen as performing impressively as the home minister, drawing comparisons with Hishammuddin's tenure as home minister from 2009 to 2013, which is now exposing him as being weak.

Dr M is Mukhriz's liability

hishammuddin hussien and umno bn youth pwtc support sultan rule 200209 05 Another major obstacle for Hishammuddin ( right ) would appear to be the support from the party's Johor divisions, which might not be as undivided as it was in 2009.

With the president and deputy president's post secured as both are not challenged, it is not certain whether deputy president Muhyiddin Yassin would throw unconditional backing to Hishammuddin.

Muhyiddin, who is the MP for Pagoh, also commands sizable support in Johor.

Hishammuddin himself sounded uncertain about his prospects of retaining his post during a recent interview with Utusan Malaysia , and went on to pledge his loyalty to the party even if he loses.

"No matter what happens, I will continue to support the party's struggle. I will continue to strive with the party president to continue Umno's struggle," he told Utusan late last week.

Mukhriz has been widely touted to be a popular choice, given the influence of his father, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, in Umno. However, the riding on Mahathir's popularity might not turn out well for Mukhriz.

"This could be his liability, in fact. Mahathir is very popular with the public, but not within Umno. In fact, many people in Umno see Mahathir as being the cause of many problems they face in the party," the analyst said.

umno youth 2009 agm 250309 mukhriz According to the analyst, in view of dwindling Malay support for Umno in the post-reformasi era, it was Mahathir who created more mixed seats in order to secure his position - which has now become the BN's very bane in the last two elections in which the coalition failed to obtain a two-thirds majority.

"What charisma does Mukhriz ( above ) have, financially or economically? He came up, thanks to his father. He cannot disassociate himself with his father," the analyst noted.

Mohd Isa not likely to win

As such, the race for the Umno vice-president's post might not be what many have made it out to be initially, with Mohd Ali seemingly being a real contender for the vice-president's post.

With a matter of days left, and party restrictions prohibiting open individual campaigning for candidates, there are bound to be internal movements within Umno as candidates attempt to get their comrades to throw their weight behind them.

Hishammuddin himself was recently seen attending an event along with Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin Abu Bakar, who is believed to be backing his former Umno Youth chief for the VP's post.

NONE But still, the larger voter base this time could also throw the other candidate in the six-way vice-president's race, Felda chairperson Mohd Isa Samad ( right ), into the fray though he is expected to lose and emerge last among the pack.

But the big question will be this: will the two prodigal sons of former prime ministers - Hishammuddin being the son of the third prime minister Hussein Onn - whom many believe have premiership ambitions themselves be pushed out of the party's top leadership pyramid?

RAM ANAND is a member of the Malaysiakini team.