COMMENT No one should envy Najib Abdul Razak as he carries out his duties as prime minister of a country divided.

 

Three major political headaches are quickly turning into a perpetual migraine for the PM. All three share the same root causes: a weak electoral performance at the last general election.

How the PM deals with them will determine whether he will still be in office at the end of the year.    

 

First up is the decision by MCA and BN to stay out of the Gelugor by-election in Penang. This must be one of the few times a sitting government has decided to give up, even before the fight has started.

 

Even if MCA got only one vote, loses its deposit and its candidate gets tarred and feathered, the BN should still insist that the party goes into the polls.

Has the party of Tan Cheng Lock forgotten its deal with Tunku Abdul Rahman? Even if the MCA had only one seat in Parliament, the Tunku once said, we will still partner with it.

 

In short, the BN must always provide itself as an alternative. Heck, the opposition does it all the time, getting tarred and feathered, but it lives to fight another day.

 

It is the nature of politics to have ups and downs. Going into the tiger’s den, the MCA candidate will surely get mauled. Chew Mei Fun, the Penang MCA leader, got herself burnt when standing against PKR’s Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail recently, but she reduced the PKR majority as well as highlighted how that party played political games.

 

By not taking on the Tiger Cub of Jelutong, MCA, and by extension the BN, have failed to provide a credible alternative to the DAP in Penang. In short, MCA is no longer a political party by its own admission. It has let down whatever support it has left in the country.

 

The real reason here is that BN no longer has any confidence that it can take on the opposition in urban areas. Teluk Intan in Perak will be the next battleground and how Gerakan decides to take on DAP there will determine whether the BN has anything left in its arsenal.

 

In politics, one does not avoid elections because there is a high chance of losing. If this is the mantra of a sitting governmental party, then one can see that BN may disintegrate if it is out of power. This does not bode well for a two-coalition system of governance.

 

A word of advice to the BN: go into elections even if there is a 100 percent chance of losing because by not standing you ensure a 100 percent of not winning in all future battles.

 

Umno running out of gas in Terengganu

 

Speaking of losing power, Umno in Terengganu may just have run out of gas. Late last night, the former menteri besar resigned from the party with another state assemblyperson following suit, and this morning, a third Umno assemblyperson joined them. This means that the BN majority in that state has just evaporated.

 

How the PM deals with this major headache will determine whether he can govern his own party effectively. Chances are that he will pull through, but, as Dr Mahathir Mohamad said, he is a PM with no teeth.

 

The Umno president’s role is a complicated one. His party must command the votes in Parliament, which Najib has, but his coalition partners must also be big in numbers, so that he can keep his party’s lunatic fringe in check.

 

Without two-thirds majority in Parliament, the Umno president is at the mercy of his own party and cannot effectively balance the needs of his coalition partners.

 

This is demonstrated by the recent “mistake” about ethnicity in governmental forms. Obviously, some East Malaysians leaders would not mind seeing the end of ethnic-based politics but this put the PM in a difficult position. The result is vague statements with lots of flip-flopping all round.

 

Obviously, the Ahmad Said resignation is a major slap and the PM’s limitations are there for all to see.

 

This political crisis cannot have come at a more difficult time. The PM’s personal popularity is at an all-time low. People still remember the “let them eat kangkung” statement, the huge turnout to protest the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST), as well as the rising cost of living, lower foreign investments and a missing plane.

 

The hudud conundrum

 

Finally, the icing on the cake: hudud. How the PM resolves this issue will determine whether the BN remains in one piece. Umno can decide to force his hand and enter into partnership with PAS. It will really mean leaving the social contract behind and moving into unchartered territory.

 

Umno parliamentarians may not all decide to walk down that road, so a coalition based upon hudud exclusively may not sustain the new coalition in power.

Despite the much reduced majority, the BN and Pakatan Rakyat had set aside hudud in the last general election. To go to the polls as a new coalition of Umno-PAS minus all non-Muslim partners will probably result in a thrashing.

 

Nonetheless, hudud is on the agenda now. With the technical committee being formed and sponsored by both Umno and PAS, it will be interesting to see how both these political animals revisit old wounds.

 

Will PAS enter into a political alliance when fundamentally they disagreed with the Umno of Merdeka? Can it get back in bed with Umno when it is no longer the same 1970s PAS of Asri Muda?

                                               

How will Umno manage to hold on to its coalition partners, especially in East Malaysia? Will the MCA and DAP stand their ground to form a non-Muslim pact outside both coalitions, which will split the country along ethnic and religious lines?

 

Whatever the outcome, Terengganu may beat Kelantan to implementing hudud. Like dominoes, the other states will follow suit and so end "1Malaysia".

 

The answer is now in the hands of PM Najib. It is a most unenviable task but we reap what we sow. At least he will be remembered for being the PM who hosted the US President Barack Obama, who in turn called upon all Malaysians to set aside their differences and work for mutual development.

 

Sad that the last time a US president came to Malaysia, we were so far more united and Malaysia was a model country for others in Southeast Asia to follow.

 

 

NEIL KHOR completed his PhD at Cambridge University and now writes occasionally on matters that he thinks require better historical treatment. He is quietly optimistic about Malaysia's future.