The results of yesterday’s Rompin by-election are inconclusive on whether issues that have been plaguing Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak’s administration had any bearing on voter sentiment, according to analysts.

Instead, BN’s reduced majority in the by-election can be attributed to the lower voter turnout compared with the 13th general election turnout, said Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (Ideas) CEO Wan Saiful Wan Jan and Penang Institute fellow Wong Chin Huat.

Wan Saiful ( photo ) told Malaysiakini that in order to test voter sentiment on issues such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST), allegations of Najib’s lavish lifestyle, and attacks from his predecessor Dr Mahathir Mohamad, based on a by-election result, the by-election needs to be in a marginal seat.

It should be a seat where both BN and Pakatan Rakyat have a chance of winning, unlike Rompin, which is an Umno stronghold.

“I don’t think Rompin is the best tool to just measure that sentiment, because it has always been a rather safe seat for BN and for Umno. So even if there is a level of anger towards Najib among BN supporters, it will not be reflected that clearly in an area like Rompin.

“If that kind of sentiment is to be tested, it has to be within a 50-50 constituency,” he said when contacted last night.

On the other hand, Wan Saiful opined that the by-election is a test whether non-Muslims still trust PAS, especially in view of an apparent swing of Chinese Malaysian votes towards BN.

“I think we can safely assume that, at the moment, the level of trust for PAS, especially within Pakatan Rakyat, has significantly dropped.

“In this election, I think it would be interesting to measure how big that drop has been,” he said.

To a question, Wan Saiful said this would not be due to PAS’ push for hudud law alone, but also the party’s willingness to work with Umno and PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang’s “unreliability” as a Pakatan Rakyat coalition member.

BN’s Hasan Arifin garnered 23,796 votes in yesterday’s by-election , beating his PAS contender Nazri Ahmad by 8,895 votes. The voter turnout was 74 percent, compared with 86 percent in the 13th general election.

Hasan’s predecessor, the late Jamaluddin Jarjis, won with a 15,144-vote majority in GE13.

Of the 53,294 voters, about two percent are ethnic Chinese, but the figure rises to as high as 27.7 percent in some polling districts, such as Kuala Rompin.

An overwhelming portion (87 percent) of Rompin voters are Malays, according to the Election Commission’s (EC) figures.

Lower voter turnout

According to Wan Saiful, the reduced majority is something to be expected due to the lower voter turnout, which in turn is many outstation voters vote not return just to vote in a by-election.

Meanwhile, the political scientist Wong ( left ) said the EC is to blame for the lower voter turnout for choosing a weekday to hold the by-election.

As for the fact that PAS had maintained its number of votes, despite the lower majority, Wong said it showed that the Islamist party had managed to make inroads in some constituencies, but lost votes in others.

“The interesting question for PAS’ gain in some polling districts would be: Are the swings caused by voters' support for syariah law or (opposition to) GST.

“Since Umno has been working with PAS on the hudud technical committee, voters supporting hudud might still choose Umno,” Wong added.

On how the by-election would affect the coming PAS party elections, Wan Saiful said its impact on Hadi would be minimal.

This is because PAS is already expecting to lose the by-election, while Hadi’s supporters don’t consider winning elections to be a benchmark.

“For them, it is better to lose than to win and having to ‘sell your principles’. So I don’t think it would have any impact on Hadi’s leadership or Hadi’s chances,” he said.

‘Result a boon to Hadi, Tuan Ibrahim’

Wong said the by-election result would be a boon to Hadi and PAS vice-president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man.

He said Hadi would be able to claim that the party’s hudud agenda was gaining traction among Malay voters, while Tuan Ibrahim, who headed the PAS campaign in Rompin, could boast about his leadership.

Separately, MCA central committee member Ti Lian Ker ( photo ) told Malaysiakini that the voting patterns showed that Chinese voters were clearly rejecting PAS.

“The Chinese voters are clear of the fact that the PAS proposal for hudud will affect their security, livelihood and freedom. This is despite the attempt by PAS to say that hudud is only applicable to Muslims, but it will, directly or indirectly, affect everybody.

“Further, Hasan is a known face to the Chinese voters and a popular elected representative when he served as assemblyperson and deputy menteri besar for four terms.

“He is the face of moderation in Umno that is very much wanting and wanted by the Chinese in Umno,” Ti, who is Kuantan MCA division chief, said last night.

Meanwhile on Facebook, MCA president Liow Tiong Lai and his deputy Wee Ka Siong are separately hailing the apparent return of Chinese support for BN.

Wee said BN’s winnings yesterday included two “Chinese majority” polling districts in Rompin, while Liow pledged that the party would continue to work towards earning more support.

“MCA is also happy to see a significant increase of votes in the Chinese areas and this is due to the hard work of party members serving on the ground.

“We are also clear that the Chinese voters have overwhelmingly rejected attempts to implement PAS’ hudud via Pakatan Rakyat,” Liow said yesterday.

Additional reporting by Andrew Ong.