COMMENT Much as I have disagreed with his strategies in the past, I read with considerable interest Rafizi Ramli’s speculation that the Tabung Haji-1MDB TRX land deal is part of some sort of master plan by Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak to flush out pretenders to his throne.

Rafizi said: “It (the controversy) has flushed out the quiet conspirators, now they are out in the open. For example, Muhyiddin Yassin. Najib was aware that Muhyiddin is not loyal, but he needed an excuse to act and now he has one.”

While somewhat far-fetched, I suppose this scenario is not beyond the pale of possibility.

As Najib is pushed further and further into a corner, the number of ways the rest of this show can play out is dwindling quickly.

At opposite ends of the spectrum, Najib can now basically go the way of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, his predecessor, or the way of Dr Mahathir Mohamad,currently his fiercest critic.

Abdullah’s path: Keeping the head down

Few can be expected to understand the lessons of Abdullah’s fate better than Najib himself, who gained the most from Abdullah’s dramatic fall from grace in 2008.

The similarities between Abdullah ( right ) in 2008 and Najib in 2015 are clear. Mahathir himself appears in the same role, like an ageing Bollywood star who, for some reason, still keeps getting cast as a teenager.

In 2008, Najib played his cards masterfully and employed the same strategy he had for most of his career - he kept his head down, toed the party line publicly and never showed his own knives until the very last moment.

Azmin Ali did much the same throughout the Kajang Move last year and both men ultimately won their most coveted goal.

Needless to say, a strategy that works while you’re Number 2 may not necessarily work while you’re Number 1.

Abdullah’s own strategy of keeping things quiet and not being aggressive earned him little beyond an early retirement. When faced with relentless internal onslaught, he chose not to fight and likely settled for some sort of deal that probably allowed him to live out his days in comfort and relative dignity.

Dr M’s path: Keep your opponent’s head down

Mahathir has always done the exact opposite when faced with a fight. Someone recently described Mahathir to me as a man who is only healthy when he is fighting.

As prime minister, Mahathir was the man who always brought the gun to a knife fight. The lyrics from Liberty Valance come to mind, “Many a man would face his gun, and many a man would fall.”

He faced down multiple challenges - some from without, but most from within - with ruthlessness and an absolute refusal to budge. As leaders like Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah ( left ) and Anwar Ibrahim found out the hard way, trying to play chicken with Mahathir was a sure fire ticket to a dramatically shortened political career.

Mahathir’s history showed that as you battle down big challenges, you grow from strength to strength. Mahathir built on this to stay on as prime minister for a record 22 years.

One of the benefits of developing this track record and reputation is that over time, people are less and less likely to even bother challenging someone perceived as such a behemoth.

And, what is Najib’s path?

Najib has no such reputation. Rallies in far off Sabah aside, Najib’s last few months have little to suggest any kind of substantial strength.

On the surface, it would appear that Najib is very much more headed in Abdullah’s direction, rather than Mahathir’s.

Of course, enthusiastic consumers of political drama daydream about different scenarios. More than once has The Godfather been invoked as a metaphor for our current political intrigues.

The dramatic climax of the first Godfather movie is in large part achieved by (spoiler alert) the setup of how Michael Corleone looks beat, tired and spent as the end approaches - unable to stand up to the other crime families circling like sharks.

His apparent weakness leads his lieutenants to plot against him and all appears to be lost… right until Corleone  draws the hammer of vengeance from under the veils of deceptive decay to smite opponents and the traitors in his midst.

It is most likely that Occam’s Razor applies here and that Najib is as weak as he seems.

Rafizi’s prediction that Najib is taking a leaf from Mahathir’s book and is pulling his own Operasi Lalang - letting his detractors grow visible from the undergrowth only so that he can mow them down - is likely to turn out to be only the type of drama political conspirators like to dream up.

However, with so much at stake and with his predecessor’s deflated legacies such an obvious warning, it may be too early to say...

NATHANIEL TAN is a member of the Malaysiakini team .

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