COMMENT Strategy is not about planning your own moves in a static world, as if all it takes to affect the outcome is your intent. It is about calculating your own moves by anticipating others’ moves.
Thinking strategically means recognising that even inaction has risks and costs. There is an opportunity cost and risk to everything.
Timing therefore becomes important. Strategic thinking is like holding a GPS device, rather than a map.
While the distance between your destination and departure point will remain the same on a map, the estimated time of arrival (ETA) and the best route may change every minute as the traffic flows are being monitored.
And as your ETA depends on others’ usage of roads, when you start your journey may decide how long your journey takes.
Hence, to think strategically about making Bersih 4 a success is eventually to ask how Najib may defeat Bersih 4. If Najib Abdul Razak fails to defeat it, then Bersih 4 will be a success.
How may Bersih 4 threaten Najib?
Bersih 4 urges Najib’s resignation amidst its five demands - clean elections, clean governments, right to dissent, strengthening parliamentary democracy, saving the economy, which capture the gist of its 10-point institutional reform agenda.
(‘Strengthening Parliamentary Democracy’ is a new demand added in response to the persecution of political dissent under Section 124B of the Penal Code ‘activities detrimental to parliamentary democracy’.)
That urging came after Najib’s removal of the attorney-general (AG), co-opting four public accounts committee (PAC) members into the frontbench and changing the Special Branch chief instead of taking leave to facilitate independent investigation on 1MDB.
So, if you were Najib, what will you see as the threats posed by Bersih 4?
My reading is that he might see three threats:
1. An uprising through indefinite occupation ala Arab Spring.
2. Further erosion of his legitimacy which may embolden more dissents within Umno or the state, accelerating his fall.
3. Reviving civil activism to overcome its fatigue since the 13th general election (GE13), making it hard for BN to win the 14th general election (GE14) under his leadership.
What will be the realistic goal for Najib?
But how likely and serious are these threats? This will affect Najib’s options and response.
An Arab Spring cannot happen if the crowd goes home after 34 hours on the streets. This is what the Bersih 2.0 coalition wants. The rally deliberately ends on Sunday midnight so that it will not even spill over to the Merdeka celebration on Monday.
Of course, an Arab Spring may also erupt if there is police crackdown with bloodshed. It would then be untenable for Najib - very likely, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, too - to stay in power. Their fate won’t be better than that of Suharto of Indonesia.
So, one can reasonably expect Najib and Zahid to be in agreement with Bersih 2.0 to not opt for a bloody ending. They will just bear for the 34 hours to pass.
Strategically thinking, Najib should therefore aim for making Bersih 4 a non-event. Surely, Paul Stadlen, the ‘orang puteh’ advising Najib’s propaganda machine, knows that well.
Bersih 1 and 2 drew 50,000 to the streets while Bersih 3 multiplied that to 250,000. If Bersih 4 cannot draw more than 50,000, it would be a failure.
How to reduce Bersih 4 turnout?
Najib would have learned from Bersih 2 that pre-rally arrests would only be counter-productive. The better way is to allow Bersih 4 to happen with some restrictions and nuisances but dissuade people from attending.
Below are the discourses that I believe Stadlen and company would like to see:
1. Bersih 4 will lead to an Arab Spring because the protesters are staying overnight and want to overthrow Najib. It would be dangerous to both rally participants and also the nation. If Najib is overthrown, Malaysia will likely get Zahid as his worse successor.
2. Bersih 4 should go for indefinite protests in the Philippines, Hong Kong or Taiwan until Najib steps down or some institutional reforms are conceded by the government. Otherwise, ‘predictable’, ‘law-abiding’ and (standard operating procedure) SOP-style demonstrations are but Selfie Session 4 for middle-class Malaysians.
3. Bersih 4 will achieve nothing as the Bersih 1,2,3 rallies had only brought about ‘indelible ink’ (‘edible’ and ‘delible’ in GE13) and partial reform on postal voting. Demonstrations will be a waste of time as nothing will work in this country.
4. Bersih 4 is used by the opposition because it is urging Najib’s resignation and demands not only electoral reforms but also reforms on the Parliament, AG’s Chamber and the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC). It should just keep to clean elections and not link it to corruption and right to dissent.
5. Bersih 4 is either another Colour Revolution sponsored by the CIA or part of a Christian and Jewish conspiracy to marginalise Islam and the Malays. And Najib is targeted because he is defending Islam and Malays.
It would be wrong to deduce that people who take on these lines are cybertroopers. They may well be genuine Bersih supporters or ordinary citizens who just respond to information and messages presented around them. After all, Paul Stadlen is not the old-school Zainuddin Maidin.
Think positively, it is good to have lively debates on why we do what do. Democratisation needs thinking citizens, not followers.
The benefits of Bersih 4’s poor turnout
In the event of a poorly-attended Bersih 4, these storylines are probably what Stadlen and his team will feed through the mainstream media and social media in the months to come to Umno warlords, state agencies, business elites, foreign governments, NGOs and members of the public:
1. Most Malaysians stick to Najib’s leadership, not least because there is not a clear substitute. Better the devil you know than the angels yet to be found.
2. Mahathir Mohamad’s and Muhyiddin Yassin’s warning that Umno may lose the 14th general election is not substantiated. Umno warlords should close ranks and rally behind Najib and brave it through GE14.
3. ‘Rebels’ in MACC, AG’s Chamber, Bank Negara, and the Auditor-General’s Office should all accept the ‘post-July 29 New Order’ and put down their guns.
4. Business elites and media organisations should expect a hard time like what is bestowed on Tong Kooi Ong and The Edge if they challenge Najib.
5. ‘Pakatan 2.0' is hopeless because only PAS can mobilise support. And if the opposition wants to make up with PAS, they will have to accept Hadi Awang’s hudud agenda.
6. Bersih 2.0 is a spent force and should be blamed for Bersih 4’s failure. It needs a new leadership that ‘is neutral’ and ‘can work with the government to push for reforms from within’.
7. Unpatriotic Malaysians, who are not happy with Malaysia, please leave before GE14. The country under Najib can do without you.
Why must there be Bersih 4?
Why must there be Bersih 4 then since Najib will do its best to suppress the number?
Many detractors of Bersih 4 speak as if inaction has no opportunity cost and wait-and-see has no risk.
Nothing can be worse than the electoral one-party state being revived under a new PM - from Umno or an Umno-opposition pact - without institutional reforms. The GE14 outcome will be a foregone conclusion.
We are already seeing its first sign in the Court of Appeal’s approval of the Election Commission’s unconstitutional display of its redelineation proposal .
Why should anyone in power heed the urging for reforms if Bersih 4 is held after the dust settles?
For those who fear Zahid becoming the new PM when Najib steps down, do they really think this can be absolutely prevented by not having Bersih 4?
What’s their strategy if Najib has to go and Zahid or another Umno leader takes over? What’s their strategy if the new PM calls elections, with both worse malapportionment and gerrymandering of constituencies and worse abuse of state institutions?
Does Bersih 2.0 have a strategy? Of course, it does.
And it is not breaking barricades, but demanding institutional reforms strengthen our parliamentary democracy and save our economy, regardless of whether the prime minister is Najib, Zahid or anyone else.
Bersih 2.0’s urging for Najib’s exit is a response to reality but it is situated in the parliamentary context: resignation or loss of confidence. It is not a call for Arab Spring to force Najib into over-reaction.
Will Bersih 4 make this strategy work? That’s really a numbers game.
I believe there will be enough patriotic Malaysians to beat Najib’s psywar, join Bersih 4 and amplify the urging for institutional reforms to more Malaysians.
I will join Bersih 4 to make it work. What about you?
WONG CHIN HUAT earned his PhD on the electoral system and party system in West Malaysia from the University of Essex. He is a fellow at the Penang Institute, and a resource person for electoral reform lobby, Bersih 2.0.
