Dr Jeyaindran, what if you're wrong?
COMMENT | What is the harm in allowing for a second opinion of Anwar's condition?
Last February, Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim was sentenced to five years in prison, a verdict that foreign governments, international human rights groups, and prominent newspapers around the world all condemned. The world outside Malaysia agreed as one that Anwar was a political prisoner and a victim of great injustice.
For the second time in Malaysia's history, Amnesty International declared Anwar to be a "prisoner of conscience."
The Malaysian government, of course, ignored world opinion and claimed otherwise.
In
an article
in
Malaysiakini
, I challenged the Malaysian government to name any international observer who agreed with their view that Anwar's trial was fair and just. To date, they have not been able to find anyone. The reason is simple - there is no one.
As Anwar was convicted, hot-headed Home Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi set the tone for everything that would follow. He said that there would be "no special treatment" for Anwar in prison.
Anwar, he said, would be treated like any other prisoner - even though he was the leader of the opposition and one of the most famous and respected Malaysians in the world.
So Anwar, whom everyone knows has long had back problems, and who is 68 years old, would sleep on a thin mattress on a concrete floor like any common criminal. He would get a cursory once-a-month medical check-up from an overworked government physician.
Whether the prescribed treatment actually would be delivered was entirely another matter.
Anwar's condition worsens
The treatment that Malaysia's prison system meted out to Anwar, at Zahid's orders, was worse than what Anwar had encountered during his previous incarceration, when he was much younger.
And to no one's surprise, Anwar's physical condition has worsened.
For myself, it is not worth getting into a blow-by-blow discussion about what has happened over the past seven or eight months - for example, when the MRIs were given, and how many there were; or how often Anwar has been given physical therapy for his shoulder problems. I will leave that to others to discuss.
There is something more fundamental.
I have one basic concern.
And that is Health Ministry deputy director-general Dr Jeyaindran Sinnadura's absolute confidence that his diagnosis is correct, and that everything that should be done is, in fact, being done.
But Dr Jeyaindran, what if you are wrong? You are a heart specialist, not an orthopedic surgeon.
And we all know your connection to the government, and to Najib - which automatically makes you "suspect" in the eyes of the world.
Everyone is entitled to a second medical opinion.
Dr Jeyaindran, are you willing to pay the consequences if something goes wrong with one of Malaysia's most prominent sons? It will totally be your responsibility. The world might not know your name, but it certainly will condemn you for your callousness and violation of the sacred trust of every physician.
Regret analysis
Years ago, when I was in the US State Department, I went through an incredibly useful training exercise on "regret analysis." I remember it more than any other training exercise in my career.
The situation was simple. A rebel army was attempting to overthrow the government of an imaginary African country, which was supported by the United States. The rebels said that when they took over the capital, they would kill all the Americans they could find because America has supported the government.
The US intelligence agencies said that the rebels had only a 5% chance of succeeding.
The Pentagon was waiting for the President's orders. If it moved its ships closer to the African country in order to prepare for a possible evacuation of American citizens before they might be killed, it would be very expensive.
It also would send a political signal that we were concerned that the rebels might win. That would demoralise our "ally" African government and its military forces and maybe even cause the government's collapse. It also would divert our forces away from other important duties in the region.
So what would you do? There was a 95% probability that all these terrible things would never happen. But there still was a small 5% chance that something awful would occur.
So you chose to go with the 95 percent probability.
But what if you were wrong? And the 5 percent became true. What if, as it turned out, the rebels won, and hundreds of Americans were killed? Then how much do you "regret" your decision?
That taught me to always think about one basic question. We always try to think of the "right decision." But what if I am wrong? How much will I regret it?
So Dr Jeyaindran, you seem very confident in your judgment. But what if you are wrong?
What is the harm in allowing for a second or even multiple evaluation of Anwar's condition, and what needs to be done for it?
It will not cost you or the government anything - and it also will save you a lot of criticism.
Allowing Anwar to see other doctors won't cost the government much at all. But it certainly will prevent you from having your name smeared in mud for all time to come.
JOHN R MALOTT is former United States ambassador to Malaysia.
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