Now that DAP, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) have formalised their political tie-up via Pakatan Harapan, they have to prove that their alliance has what it takes to change the country’s political landscape, according to political analysts.

They say the three parties must ensure there is no repeat of past mistakes made by predecessor Pakatan Rakyat and that it should come across as a mature and stable front capable of making decisions collectively.

The Sarawak state election, which is expected to be held soon, will serve as a good test case to gauge the effectiveness of the new union and its impact on the nation’s political scene.

Does the new pact, signed by the three parties on Jan 9, look promising enough to give rise to a strong enough opposition coalition?

New agreement, old formula

Political analysts, however, contend that the Pakatan Harapan agreement was based on the model used by Pakatan Rakyat, which essentially was a “marriage of convenience”.

A senior lecturer at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Faculty of Social Science and Humanities Asso Prof Dr Samsul Adabi Mamat said the new agreement shared the same principles as the previous one, with the stark difference being the absence of PAS which has been replaced by Amanah.

“The opposition has lost its biggest asset with the omission of PAS... the new coalition will not enjoy good support, especially among the Malays, as PAS is not part of it and this is the reality,” he told Bernama .

Viewing the agreement as purely cosmetic, Universiti Putra Malaysia’s Faculty of Human Ecology lecturer Dr Amini Amir said it did not seem promising and felt that Pakatan Harapan would face the same fate as Pakatan Rakyat.

“In the absence of PAS, the new coalition doesn’t look strong at all. Previously, it was PAS and its huge machinery that made Pakatan Rakyat strong. And, Amanah is no match for PAS although it is the replacement for PAS,” he said.

Political rhetoric

Universiti Utara Malaysia senior lecturer in political and international studies Md Shukri Shuib described the new pact as mere “political rhetoric”.

“The consequences of the previous coalition (PKR, PAS and DAP) have led to the new alliance (PKR, DAP and Amanah) which, apparently, wants to take a more cautious approach,” he said.

Md Shukri said the opposition was now trying hard to show the people that it was capable of forging a lasting and united alliance like Barisan Nasional (BN).

“The question is, now that an agreement for a new coalition has been signed, what has become of the old pact which includes PAS and which is involved in the administration of Selangor?

“It looks like the Selangor government has to get rid of its PAS exco (executive council) members and replace them with Amanah representatives. But before this is done, all three Pakatan Harapan parties have to give their consent as per their new agreement. Is Pakatan Harapan ready to enforce (their agreement) or is it going to be among the series of ‘drama’ to be staged by the opposition before the next general election comes along,” he asked.

Political gimmick

Meanwhile, Samsul Adabi and Amini have dismissed as “political gimmick” the assertion by PKR vice-president Shamsul Iskandar Mohd that the inking of the Pakatan Harapan agreement reflected its commitment to act like a “government-in-waiting”.

“They must confront the reality that their support base has shrunk after PAS left them... this is something they can’t deny and, furthermore, they are incapable of replacing BN,” said Samsul Adabi.

Amini said PKR was trying to influence the rakyat by giving them the impression that the new coalition was strong when the reality was something else.

The Pakatan Harapan agreement, among others, outlines the coalition’s directions, including its decision-making process, choice of election candidates and adherence to the salient points of the pact.

The agreement also provides for firm action to be taken against component parties which deviate from the Pakatan Harapan consensus, and this includes giving the errant party the sack.

Split in Malay support

Will there be a split in Malay support now that Amanah has entered the fray?

Samsul Adabi and Amini concede that the new Malay-based party’s presence would cause a split in votes, particularly in Malay-majority constituencies.

They are also convinced that it will be difficult to avoid three-cornered fights among PAS, Umno and Amanah in the next general election.

Amini said PAS, however, may not get the support of Pakatan Harapan loyalists in Malay-majority areas where Umno and Amanah were also contesting.

“DAP and PKR will, for sure, go all out to ensure that their partner wins,” he said.

Samsul Adabi said he expected more Malays to end up as fence-sitters during the 14th general election in view of the political turmoil involving the Malay-based parties.

“This will lead to a split among the Malays,” he added.

- Bernama