After former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad announced that he has quit Umno in protest for the second time, questions arose on whether his actions would impact the nation's largest Malay-based party.

Some quarters opined that Mahathir’s action would leave its mark on Umno, while others believe that Mahathir's move may very well be the 'hope' that the opposition, fresh from its own internal struggles, needs.

The following are the views of political analysts Ahmad Atory Hussain, Jeniri Amir and Umno veteran Mustapha Yaakob, in response to Malaysiakini 's query on the matter.

Ahmad Atory: It won't shake Umno. The party will continue to be relevant and the impact of Mahathir leaving is quite minor, for he is only throwing a tantrum against party president Najib Abdul Razak but he has not lost hope in Umno.

I am confident that when Umno solves its ongoing leadership conflict, I think that he (Mahathir) will return to the fold.

Jeniri: I believe that his exit leaves no mark. It is just that every time he quits and rejoins, his credibility will suffer. If the first time people saw it as something great, this second time, the people will not get excited about the move and will not give notice as they did the last time. Furthermore, his reason is personal.

The effects on Umno may not be that much and it will depend on what strategy and approach Mahathir uses in the coming month. But, I am sure, he will continue his attack until the next general election.

Mustapha: There shall be effects (of his departure). There will be, more or less, as he was a former party president, a long-serving prime minister and he has his own followers. They may be disappointed with the current leadership and some may follow him out of Umno, or will silently protest while remaining inside the party.

You can't say that there will be no effect (after Mahathir left). That will be lying. There must be some consequences, but it will not be major.

Was Mahathir being petulant or trying to threaten the party?

Ahmad Atory: I agree, it seems like a threat, but more aimed at influencing Umno members. Also, there are elements of him being petulant, normal perhaps, for he is getting on in age. Like old men throwing tantrums. He is trying to get Umno members to follow him. But it doesn't seem to be working these few days.

Jeniri: After he left, Mahathir now has the legitimacy to attack the party. But whether he can galvanise support from the opposition, NGOs and those with the same aims as him will depend on the strategy and approach he will make use of in his campaign.

But I don't think that he will stop midway and surrender because his agenda is to ensure that the person he is targeting will fall and only that will please him. As a leader who sees himself as a credible statesman, Mahathir believes he has the right. And, as long as his objective is not met, he will not stop.

Mustapha: I don't think he is threatening, but to say he is being petulant, maybe yes, because all of his efforts to unseat Najib have failed and this is proven when he said that Umno is no longer the party he knew but is Najib's party. He is very angry with Najib. To say he is threatening is not true, but he is perhaps throwing a tantrum becasue he is dissatisfied with Umno not exhibiting any signs of getting rid of Najib.

Will Mahathir's actions empower the opposition enough to take Najib down?

Ahmad Atory: I don't think that the opposition is strong enough, as even they are now divided. So I don't think so. PAS is even now supporting Umno, Amanah president Mohamad Sabu is acting weird. Many of their leaders can't even go to Sarawak. How can you say that they are gaining strength? If so, they should show it.

Jeniri: I don't think that you can say that the opposition is strong as their strength depends a lot on them being united or not, and they are now fighting among themselves.

Their pact is only in name and I don't think they have any hope to be realised. Their first test, which they have yet to pass, is to ensure a united fornt. As long as they still continue to fight one another, their struggle will remain a dream.

Should former DPM Muhyiddin Yassin join Mahathir in leaving Umno?

Ahmad Atory: I don't believe Muhyiddin will follow Mahathir as he is still a member and Umno leader, as well as MP and division chief. He still has positions in the party, except he is no longer the deputy president (he was suspended from the post recently). But he still holds a lot of position and privileges. It won't be easy for him to leave Umno just like that.

Other members also still look to him for his leadership and influence and his division still stands behind him. If he leaves, the division will fall apart. If I am him, I will not follow Mahathir, who is basically a free agent, a statesman without anything much to lose. No need to follow Mahathir.

Muhyiddin does not have to leave the party, he only needs to wait for the coming party elections. What will he do if he leaves? Form a new party?

Jeniri: If that is the best route (leaving Umno) and he knows the risk, then he can do it. But there will be risks.

Mustapha: I don't think that Muhyiddin and vice-president Shafie Apdal will make that move. Even though at the moment Muhyiddin and Shafie are not in line with the party, I know both of them. As leaders with vision and a belief in their own selves, they believe that that no party but Umno can save the Malays.

Even if they don't agree with Najib, I think they will stay and wait for the coming party elections.