Compared to his Sabah counterpart Musa Aman who is said to be retaliating against undercurrents in his own party urging him to adhere to the chief executive post rotation system and step down as chief minister, Taib Mahmud seems to be fortifying his political position in Sarawak.

Taib, chief minister since 1981, accused by critics of strengthening his grip on power through a 'subtle play of patronage politics', is now bolstering his party - Parti Pesaka-Bumiputra Bersatu (PBB) - via the latest election boundary re-delineation exercise.

The exercise will see PBB, which leads the four-member state ruling coalition, with close to half of the total state assembly seats.

Taib's Chinese-based partner Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP) - led by one of his two deputy chief ministers Dr George Chan - may end up with the worst end of the bargain.

Out of the proposed eight new state seats, only one is predominantly Chinese (Pujut) which has been carved out of the deputy chief minister's own state seat Miri.

No new predominantly Chinese seats have been created either in Sibu or Kuching and it is an open secret that Supp leaders, especially those in the two urban centres, are unhappy.

Some of these leaders have blamed Chan, claiming that he did not fight hard enough for more Chinese-majority seats.

Test case

Observers generally agree that the next state elections, expected to be held between July and next September, will be a test case for Supp and the Chinese.

They said the chief minister wants to see if the Chinese electorate will continue to support the ruling coalition despite the raw deal for Supp.

In a Chinese New Year address in Miri earlier this week, Taib said the Chinese should not allow themselves to be influenced by what he called 'petty matters' (a clear reference to the unhappiness within Supp and the opposition's claim of a controlled and monopolised business in Sarawak).

He said the state Chinese politicians and corporate leaders have always been supportive of the state government's development programmes which had benefitted everyone, including the Chinese.

The chief minister added that voting out Barisan Nasional (BN) Chinese representatives in favour of opposition candidates will break the momentum of development.

Observers said Taib is confident of the Chinese community's support despite only giving them one additional state seat bringing the total to 14 out of a total of 70 in the new state assembly.

However, they warned that the chief minister could be under-estimating the currents in Supp especially when there has been an open expression of displeasure towards Chan's leadership at the recent party's annual meeting in Kuching.

Opposition weak

The opposition, especially the largely-Chinese DAP, is hoping to capitalise on this as well as on the unhappiness surrounding some of the state government's policies on business and civil service.

Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) is also expected to give it another try in the predominantly-Malay/Muslim constituencies, with former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim likely to make an appearance to support its candidates.

But observers rate its chances as poor since PKR is seen more as an 'outsider party' with a different agenda.

Whereas, opposition parties like the Sarawak National Party (Snap) and State Reform Party (Star) will try their luck in the largely Dayak constituencies, but after the recent re-delineation exercise, their leaders have admitted that 'the fight will be tougher' for the opposition.

That leaves the predominantly Chinese seats now mostly in the hands of Supp quite vulnerable, if the Chinese electorate's disenchantment continues to grow.

TONY THIEN is malaysiakini 's Sarawak-based stringer.