Johor DAP chairperson and party strategist Liew Chin Tong said after fighting to spread its wings in the coming Sarawak state election, the party will train its guns on Johor, citing recent political developments that has made the BN-controlled state ripe for the picking and a crucial pivot point for the federal opposition to gain Putrajaya.

"After the Sarawak state election, all eyes will turn to Johor which is the new political frontline," he said on Sunday at Taman Aman in Kluang.

Speaking for the first time in public since being diagnosed with Bell's palsy in January this year, Liew noted that the cracks are appearing in the once solid Johor BN, more specifically in Umno, with the the removal of former deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin from office and the signing of the Citizen’s Declaration.

He also pointed to the recent allegations of a plot to remove current Menteri Besar Khaled Nordin.

Both events could very well shake the stranglehold that Umno once held over the southern state as discontent by Muhyiddin's supporters and the hornet's nest that the alleged plot to remove the MB may have stirred, such that it may split the Malay party down the middle.

But even not taking into account the two possible political time bombs of "the Muhyiddin factor" and alleged attempt at Khaled's ouster, Liew argued that based on the the last general election in 2013 it would not take much to nudge BN and Umno of their once lofty Johor perch.

Mere five percent swing

A mere five percent swing may cause BN to lose seven state seats and seven parliamentary seats argued Liew, noting that the BN state seats of Gambir, Paloh, Mahkota, Nusajaya, Bukit Naning, Pemanis, Sungai Balang will fall, while the parliamentary seats in danger are Pasir Gudang, Labis, Tebrau, Segamat, Ledang, Pulai and Muar.

Further more, he said that with a 10 percent swing, BN will lose another seven state and four additional parliamentary seats, namely the state seats of Senggarang, Semerah, Serom, Tenang, Kempas, Kemelah, Pulai Sebatang and the Sekijang, Tanjong Piai, Johor Bahru and Sri Gading parliamentary seats.

"In other words, a 10 percent swing will deprive BN of 14 state seats and 11 parliamentary seats," he said.

Liew also explained that the 11 parliamentary seats does not include Muhyiddin’s Pagoh and other seats within his sphere of influence which may add to BN's losses.

Johor has a total of 56 state seats. It would take 29 seats to win state power and the 14 state seats that BN may lose will surely add to the opposition's current tally of 18 state seats.

As for parliamentary seats Johor has 26, with the federal opposition winning five seats in the last election. The 11 extra parliamentary seats would help bring the opposition closer to federal power with BN controlling just 134 out of 222 seats.

"Johor DAP and our allies will work hard to win the support of more voters to prepare Johor as the front line state of a change of government at the federal and state levels," concluded Liew.