Sarawak BN’s strategy of running ‘direct candidates’ in seats coveted by allies will benefit the splinter parties but at a cost to the coalition’s original members, say analysts.

BN chief Adenan Satem’s formula may put a bigger dent into Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) than Sarawak Democratic Progressive Party (SPDP), but their splinter parties, respectively - United People’s Party (UPP) and Parti Tenaga Rakyat Sarawak (Teras) - stand to gain from it.

The move may even benefit DAP, a long time political rival of SUPP in Chinese-majority seats, but would not affect the outcome of SPDP-Teras tussle in Dayak-majority seats.

Unimas political observer Jeniri Amir predicts that DAP will gain from the SUPP-UPP tussle.

This is because both ‘pro-BN’ parties will be contesting in DAP-held Chinese-majority seats, which stand at 12 before the dissolution.

“In certain areas, like urban seats, the infighting between SUPP and UPP will affect BN’s winning chance and DAP is going to benefit from it,” he told Malaysiakini when contacted.

However, Jeniri’s reading is that the SPDP-Teras tussle, focussed on Dayak seats, is less likely to fall into opposition’s hand.

“No matter how SPDP and Teras fight, the Dayak seats will go to BN.”

SUPP ‘losing face’

Concurring with Jeniri is political scientist James Chin, who says DAP will paint SUPP losing its seats as that party losing its face in their campaign propaganda.

It is foreseeable, Chin added, that DAP will harp on SUPP’s inability to defend their seats.

“Opposition will ask, ‘SUPP, where is your pride? You can only keep quiet.’,” he told Malaysiakini , adding that SUPP’s chance of regaining the Chinese-majority seats is slim.

Before the state assembly was dissolved, SUPP had trumpeted that they would want to contest in 19 seats - based on the last state election - and two extra ones after the delimitation exercise.

This was confirmed by an SUPP special meeting two years ago. It had resolved then not to give even one seat to UPP.

SUPP even threatened Adenan that it will not budge on any of the state constituencies, or else the party will reconsider its future in BN, Chin (photo) recounted the threats.

“In other words, (they were willing to) quit BN.”

“But now, SUPP leaders have to accept the allocated 11 seats, proving that the party has no maruah (pride); SUPP can’t even defend their seats and force Sarawak BN to listen to them,” said Chin.

In the 2011 state election, SUPP ran in 19 constituencies but lost 13 Chinese-based seats to DAP and PKR. They only managed to hold four Dayak-majority seats and two Chinese-majority ones.

Splinter history

Later, SUPP went through internal fighting, which saw four state assemblypersons revolt and form UPP. The splinter party was led by senior minister and Bawang Assan state assemblyperson Wong Soon Koh.

Meanwhile, SPDP lost four assemblypersons to Teras, whose head is state senior minister William Mawan Ikom. This has rendered SPDP with zero representative in the Sarawak state assembly.

Currently, SUPP only holds two state seats - Simanggang’s Francis Harden and Senadin’s Lee Kim Sin; both are assistant ministers.

Adenan has announced that UPP will usurp seven SUPP traditional seats - Bawang Assan, Dudong, Pujut, Opar, Mambong (then Bengoh), Engkilili and Pelawan. Both parties are still wrestling over Meradong, a DAP-held seat in Sarikei.

At the same time, three SPDP original seats - Pakan, Bekenu and Batu Danau - were allocated to splinter party Teras. The three incumbents, namely William Mawan, assistant minister Rosey Yunus, and Palu@ Paulus Gumbang - all from Teras - will defend the seats.

SPDP could only contest in three seats, namely Meluan, Krian and Ba'kelalan - the latter two seats held by PKR, which will not make it easy for SPDP to regain them.

Currently, SPDP and Teras are still fighting over Tasik Biru and Marudi, for which no candidate has been announced. Both were SPDP seats in the previous election.

Not only that, Adenan has also overruled SUPP’s preferred candidates in Repok and Tanjung Datu by inserting personal picks.

Interestingly, Tanjung Datu’s candidate - Pau Chiong Ung - is an SPDP member who was ordered to quit and carry the SUPP banner.

Adenan has also allocated three PBB members to contest in Serembu, Bukit Semuja, and Mulu via BN direct candidates instead of the party banner.

The reason behind the PBB ‘direct candidate’, Chin explained, is the consensus reached by BN. The consensus says no single party could contest more than the majority number of seats to maintain the BN ‘diversity’.

Earlier on, Adenan decreed that BN direct candidate can join any component party in the ruling coalition. In other words, SUPP and SPDP could retain their original seats.

However, on Wednesday, Adenan changed his mind by saying the direct candidate could participate in any BN-friendly party.

The twist of fate may enable UPP and Teras to gain seats, but the flip side of that coin is that SUPP and SPDP will be on the losing side.

SUPP’s conundrum

Two days ago, SUPP president Dr Sim Kui Hian expressed worry on Adenan pro-splinter party stances.

He insisted that SUPP still ‘holds’ seats it had previously contested but have now been taken over by BN direct candidates. Should the BN direct candidates win, Sim (photo) added, they must join SUPP.

Adenan’s move indicated that he prioritises UPP over long-time comrade SUPP.

His action, Chin opined, is due to former chief minister Abdul Taib Mahmud and Sibu tycoons’ blessing of UPP and its leader Wong.

The political analyst said UPP is too big to fall.

“Part of it is that they (the four UPP assemblypersons) are incumbents; easier to win. Wong enjoys Taib and Sibu tycoons’ support. It’s very difficult to remove Wong.

“When this group dies, it presents more danger for Sarawak BN.”

According to Wong, SUPP was denied from appointing local officers such as pemancha, as Wong blocked these appointments through his local government portfolio.

This, Chin said, has weakened SUPP’s support and bargaining power.

In contrast, SUPP does have two assistant ministers with lesser portfolios than Wong’s, and as the number two, they do not attend state cabinet meeting.

Checkered coalition

While UPP may get the upper hand on candidacy, it does not mean that the splinter party will be readily embraced as a new member in Sarawak BN.

Chin said it is too difficult for Adenan to control the state coalition.

Instead, Chin opined that UPP may re-join SUPP as ‘victors’ of the state election.

“UPP will negotiate the terms of rejoining, such as demanding party positions. If the anti-Wong gang in SUPP is wiped out in then state election, then (the Wong) Soon Koh (photo) gang, if they win, can negotiate to go back,” Chin predicts.

The SUPP leadership is occupied with pacifying the Kuching and Miri folks, with Wong representing the Sibu faction.

Should Sim, as party chief, fail to win Batu Kawah, this will spell the end of his short-lived political career.

“If Sim couldn’t win in Batu Kawah, SUPP’s tradition is the president must commit hara-kiri. Just like George Chan (who lost Piasau in last state election), he has to step down as he has lost face.”

Sim is a renowned international cardiologist who entered politics in 2011. However, he failed then in his attempt to wrest back Pending from DAP’s Violet Yong.

This state election, he relocated himself to Batu Kawah and will be facing incumbent Christina Chiew from DAP.

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