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Six answers to be unveiled after S'wak poll results tonight
Published:  May 7, 2016 8:24 AM
Updated: 12:33 AM

As voters go to the polls in Sarawak, there is little expectation of a major surprise such as the BN government being ousted from power.

However, there will be much to be learnt from the election results tonight.

The outcome will have political implications not only for Sarawak but also at the national level.

Malaysiakini compiles here six insights we can glean from the election results and how it will affect the future.

Two-thirds majority

Like in 2011, the opposition entered the state election this time with the goal of denying BN two-thirds majority.

The opposition won 15 out of 71 seats in the last election, nine seats shy of denying the ruling coalition its customary two-thirds control of the state assembly.

With Sarawak having 82 seats after the re-delineation process this time, the opposition must pick up 28 seats - an additional 13 seats - to deny BN two-thirds majority.

It remains to be seen if the opposition can pull off this uphill task, as they also face a challenge in defending some of their own marginal seats.

DAP-PKR clash aftermath

Despite coming up with the Pakatan Harapan framework in a bid to avoid clashes that led to the disintegration of Pakatan Rakyat, DAP and PKR is facing a showdown in six constituencies, namely Batu Kitang, Mulu, Murum, Simanggang, Ngemah, and Mambong.

The litmus test will be in the newly carved out seat of Batu Kitang, as it was supposed to be an opposition stronghold but the dispute among allies meant that BN now stands a real chance at winning.

Pakatan Harapan's inability to resolve the clashes and insistence to "move on" has already hurt the coalition's credibility and a BN win here would further erode its viability.

The newly-carved out Mulu seat was also a potentially winnable constituency for the opposition as it lies within the Baram parliamentary constituency which was narrowly retained by BN with a razor thin 194-vote majority in the 2013 general elections.

But the PKR and DAP duel there would make it a tougher task for the opposition to win the seat.

The clash between the two parties in the remaining seats, where BN is on a stronger footing, meant the opposition's chances is dim.

Opposition's rural foray or folly?

In the 2011 election, PKR apparently overextended itself by contesting 49 seats and winning only three. Then, DAP only contested 15 and won 12 of them.

However, DAP in its bid to make inroads beyond its Chinese-majority stronghold, is taking on 31 seats in this state election, 17 of which are considered bumiputera seats.

DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang was visibly absent from the ceramah circuit in towns as he dedicated a large portion of his time in the interiors to convince bumiputera voters.

It remains to be seen if the efforts will pay off or if it will backfire in the face of BN's onslaught in seats already controlled by DAP.

Despite PKR's lacklustre performance in the last general election, it was the only Pakatan party that succeeded in wresting bumiputera seats from BN, namely Ba'kelalan and Krian.

The election results tonight will show if PKR can build on this success in the rural heartland or regress.

Najib factor vs Adenan factor

In contrast to the 2013 general elections, when Najib Abdul Razak used his personal popularity to campaign, the scandal-plagued prime minister is now seen as a liability.

The opposition has tirelessly hammered on the scandals involving the multi-billion ringgit deposits in Najib's personal bank accounts and the 1MDB controversy, while Sarawak Chief Minister Adenan Satem countered by repeatedly insisting these issues were unrelated to Sarawak.

The election results will be a litmus test on how potent the 1MDB issue is in Sarawak and whether Adenan's popularity can overcome this.

If BN pulls off a convincing win, Najib will no doubt use the election results to bolster himself from the heavy criticisms he has been facing.

Sabotage and BN Sarawak's unity

The Sarawak election is as much an internal BN affair as it is a battle between the ruling coalition and the opposition.

With Sarawak BN component parties split by infighting, Adenan moved to bypass the fractious parties by fielding 13 BN direct candidates.

This had courted unease particularly within SUPP and SPDP, which had to give up several seats to these candidates.

This is likely to lead to sabotage, the extent of which will be revealed in the election results.

If the widespread sabotage causes the BN direct candidates to be defeated in their constituencies, this is likely to further aggravate the bitterness among rival factions.

However, if the BN direct candidates can pull off a win, they will be asked to rejoin existing BN component parties, which may bring a close to SUPP's splinter UPP and SPDP's splinter Teras.

Among the key seats to watch is former UPP president Wong Soon Koh in Bawang Assan and former Teras president William Mawan Ikom in Pakan, who temporarily resigned from their parties to contest as BN direct candidates.

PAS and Amanah

PAS is perceived to be a non-factor in Sarawak but few noticed that the party almost won the Beting Maro seat in 2011, losing by a razor thin 391 votes.

Therefore the poll results will show if PAS can score its first victory in Sarawak election history.

However, it is facing a tougher challenge this time with Amanah playing spoiler.

The Sarawak election is the first electoral test for PAS splinter Amanah, which is contesting in 13 seats.

The political newbie is not expected to pull off any wins but depending on how many votes it can take away from PAS, the results will give an indication as to how serious a threat Amanah will pose to PAS in future elections, especially in by-elections expected to be called in the coming months.

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