ANALYSIS As campaigning for the Sungai Besar by-election hits its mid-way mark, BN appears to have an edge in efforts to broaden its support base from the last 2013 general elections.

Based on Malaysiakini's observations, it looks like BN will maintain the status quo of getting more than 60 percent of Malay votes, and might even make gains among the Chinese.

The remaining 40 percent of Malay ballots will be dominated by PAS, which is more recognisable among voters here than Amanah.

Partnership with DAP however will be Amanah's saving grace in Sekinchan at least, and it is possible they would benefit from most of the Chinese votes previously cast for PAS, when it was with Pakatan Rakyat.

The coastal parliamentary constituency of Sungai Besar can be best understood by looking to the state seats carved from it - Sungai Panjang (Umno-held, through assemblyperson and now Sungai Besar candidate Budiman Mohd Zohdi) and DAP-held Sekinchan.

There are a total of 42,836 registered voters in Sungai Besar, according to figures from the Election Commission.

Some 26,000 of the 28,000 registered Malay voters are from Sungai Panjang, while there are 13,142 Chinese voters and some 11,000 of them are from Sekinchan.

The remaining voters are Indians and others in both state seats.

Although he might appear to have a stronger grip on Sungai Panjang, BN’s Budiman is leaving nothing to chance and has lined up campaign events in both Sungai Panjang and Sekinchan.

A member of Budiman's campaign team told Malaysiakini that there was a day when his Toyota Fortuner went back and forth between Sungai Panjang and Sekinchan eight times - a distance of about 30 minutes each way.

In the first week, Budiman said he had set a target to meet and greet 3,000 voters a day from both areas - and going by this, he would have met about half of the constituents by the eighth day of campaign.

His personal schedule - arranged by the BN Sungai Besar division - would typically start at about 7.30am and is known to make many last minute amendments to fit things in.

He also works hard to reach out to the Chinese community - setting up a Facebook page in Chinese (albeit with some bloopers) and roping in the help of MCA president Liow Tiong Lai and Gerakan president Mah Siew Keong for events with the Chinese community.

He has also received federal support, with particular attention given to canvas for Chinese votes through addressing issues faced by trawler operators and fishermen from Sekinchan.

Leaders from MIC were also in the area to coordinate programmes with Indian voters. Even the smaller Indian parties including MyPPP and IPF, were seen on the ground to campaign for Budiman.

Aside from accompanying ministers, Budiman also capitalised on his own "kampung boy" image to campaign door-to-door.

The Ramadan factor

Ng Suee Lim, the DAP assemblyperson of Sekinchan, too, has not been getting much rest, as he is seemingly spearheading Amanah’s Azhar Abdul Shukur’s campaign.

Ng is already a household name in the area with his face plastered across billboards all around town and it is a common sight to see Ng walking around town, sometimes on his own, showing-off his orange coloured Amanah T-shirt to voters.

He needs to do this as Azhar, while born in Sungai Besar, just recently returned after staying in Temerloh.

His party is also relatively unknown in the area and DAP's Teresa Kok had quipped during her Super Saturday Ceramah that local Chinese voters are reminded to vote for the 'bak chang' - referencing Amanah's triangle logo.

But Azhar is handicapped where Budiman is not - the ones he needs to convert to his cause are the mostly Malay constituents of Sungai Panjang, who are keener to observe worship rituals during Ramadan, than to partake in the election campaign.

This is a fact admitted by PKR and Amanah leaders leading his campaigns targeted towards Malay voters.

So far, Azhar's personal engagements have been largely restricted to early morning visits, walkabouts at the Ramadan bazaars and nightly prayer sessions.

Ceramah sessions organised for the Malay crowd would only start at 10pm, after terawih prayers, and end at midnight.

On each occasion, the turnout so far had rarely exceeded 100 people and Azhar would only speak for a few minutes.

While short-lived, the inflammatory anti-BN billboards erected around Sekinchan may also affect Azhar's popularity among Malay voters who see his party as being overshadowed by DAP. On their part, DAP may have misstepped, and seen as not observing the decorum of Ramadan.

PKR could have helped soften the blow of the billboard faux pas, but the party only actively mobilised its machinery in Sungai Besar with programmes targeting younger Malay voters on the sixth day of campaign.

Allaying Chinese fears

PAS candidate Dr Abdul Rani Osman, meanwhile, said at a press conference last week that the party had printed 10,000 flyers on proposed amendments to expand jurisdiction of the Syariah Court.

This, he said, was done to allay fears among the Chinese community over the motion proposed by PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang in Parliament.

While well received, it remains unclear how far the voters are convinced that the 'Hudud Bill', as it is commonly referred to, would not affect them in any way.

Being an 'outsider' from Meru, Rani's walkabout to meet with Chinese shopkeepers in Sungai Besar last week was also accompanied by former Selangor menteri besar Abdul Khalid Ibrahim.

Even in areas deemed as its stronghold, PAS' ceramah held at the courtyard of members' houses hardly saw a turnout of more than 50 people - even with the appearance of star speaker, president Abdul Hadi Awang.

With things not boding well for either PAS or Amanah, BN is likely to gallop to victory.