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How BN benefits from redelineation in Selangor

Malaysiakini Team  |  Published:  |  Modified:

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Less than a week after the Election Commission (EC) announced its redelineation plans, the federal opposition is worried that it may lose Selangor, the richest state in the country.

DAP, in particular, has accused the EC of engineering BN’s recapture of Selangor and is urging its Pakatan Harapan partners to agree on snap polls in order to preempt the redelineation exercise.

DAP’s Serdang MP Ong Kian Ming yesterday released his analysis on the redelineation in Selangor to prove this point.

Malaysiakini has independently verified the data provided by Ong and put together here a series of infographics for a clearer perspective on what the numbers mean.

Below are all 56 Selangor state assembly seats which have been listed according to the parties that won them in the 13th general election.

They display the majority won by the respective parties and how the majorities will change under the new boundaries proposed by the EC.

 

Based on the last general election data and voting patterns, if polls were held using the EC’s new proposed boundaries, PAS would lose four state seats, namely Morib, Selat Klang, Sijangkang and Dusun Tua.

With the exception of Sabak and Tanjong Sepat, which remain unchanged, all nine of its other state seats would also see their majority substantially reduced.

There are no seats that PAS would see its majority increase.

The second biggest casualty would be PKR, which will lose three seats, namely Ijok, Pelabuhan Klang and Sementa.

Four other seats that PKR won comfortably may also be within reach of BN’s grasp as their majority are significantly reduced.

They are Kota Anggerik (4,503 majority reduced to 86 majority), Taman Medan (3,731 reduced to 1,125), Batu Tiga (3,261 reduced to 2,983) and Seri Andalas (15,633 reduced to 3,569).

This was largely achieved by moving opposition-leaning polling districts into other seats that the federal opposition won with a strong majority, thus boosting PKR's majority further in seven other seats.

Similar pattern seen in all of DAP’s seats

This pattern was similarly observed in all of DAP’s seats, significantly boosting their majorities with the exception of Kuala Kubu Bharu.

Kuala Kubu Bharu was DAP’s sole seat to see a drop in majority from 1,702 votes to 577 votes.

As for BN, the EC’s plan will see the coalition’s majority boosted in five seats, namely Bukit Melawati, Permatang, Kuang, Kota Damansara and Semenyih.

BN won Kota Damansara and Semenyih in the last general election due to three-cornered fights.

With the redelineation, BN would be able to win Semenyih again even without three-cornered fights, but Kota Damansara would be a challenge to keep if it is a direct contest.

Five other BN seats will be unchanged and only two BN seats will see their majorities shrink.

The two are Jeram and Sungai Burong, in which polling stations were moved to boost risky BN seats.

On the whole, Pakatan Harapan and PAS would lose a total of seven seats to BN under the new boundaries.

Five Harapan and PAS-held seats will also be up for grabs as BN will only need to flip less than 500 voters in its favour.

If BN were to capture these, it will have a total of 24 seats.

 

However, BN would still be four seats shy of a hung assembly, barring any realignment of alliances in the state.

In the last general election, Pakatan Harapan and PAS collectively held 44 seats in the state assembly while BN only held a meagre 12 seats.

BN’s capture of Selangor by itself in the absence of multi-cornered fights in the federal opposition is unlikely.

But the redelineation has effectively closed the gap and any multi-cornered fight in the opposition would easily put BN across the finishing line.

 

Kow Gah Chie, Lu Wei Hoong and Nigel Aw contributed to this story.

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