In the run up to the unveiling of Budget 2017, there was much speculation that it was going to be an election budget.

Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, at the end of his speech to Parliament, also appeared to allude to this.

“The BN government, with the grace of Allah, is confident that the winds of victory from the Sarawak state election, which also blew over the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections, will begin to uplift our endeavours, day by day.

“God willing, it will lead to a huge victory for the BN government in the 14th general election,” said Najib.

In Budget 2013, Najib had likewise made references to the 13th general election. 

But it should be noted that 2013 was also the deadline for the national polls. The next general election, on the other hand, must be held before June 2018.

And while Najib's remarks may add to the hype of a general election next year, the budget provided to the Election Commission (EC) suggests otherwise.

Under Budget 2017, the EC will receive an allocation of RM48.6 million.

In comparison, the EC was allocated RM150.6 million under Budget 2016 and this was only to to conduct the Sarawak state election.

As for the 13th general election, a whopping RM461.1 million was allocated to the EC under Budget 2013.

 

Also, in both instances, the 13th general election and the Sarawak election were specifically listed as one-off funding in the respective budgets.

This is absent in Budget 2017. The allocation of RM48.6 million is a sum consistent with non-general election years.

However, this does not say with absolute certainly that there will be no general election next year.

The government can still introduce a supplementary budget at the next Parliament sitting to provide additional funding to the EC if it wants to hold the general election in 2017.

But it should be noted that this was not the practice for the 13th general election and Sarawak election, where funding was already allocated in the main budget.

Another factor often considered when determining if it is a budget election or otherwise would be the "goodies" announced by the prime minister.

However, over the years, these so-called goodies have been institutionalised as part of a more targeted subsidy policy.

For example, BR1M started a year before the 13th general election, but has now become an annual cash handout with an increase every year.

 

Therefore, measuring "goodies" to predict when the next general election will be, has become harder.

Despite the prime minister's rhetoric, the budget figures show that next year is expected to be a tough year.

It is the second contracting budget tabled by Najib and the budget of RM260.8 billion has fallen to 2014 levels.

The government also predicted that it will have less money to spend, putting the projected revenue at RM219.7 billion compared to RM225.7 billion this year, RM235.2 billion in 2015 and RM224.1 billion in 2014.

 

While not highlighted in the budget speech, the Federal Expenditure Estimates show that funding for several major universities in 2017 will fall to its lowest level since Najib took power.

The prime minister may hold the general election in the first quarter of next year before sentiments sours, but this is unlikely to happen as the redelineation is ongoing.

Those opposed to the EC's redelineation are more organised this time round and have vowed to frustrate what they claim to be a biased exercise.

Groups such as Bersih have not only utilised EC's objections process but have taken the commission to court.

Even if unsuccessful, this is expected to drag on well into 2017.

If the economic situation worsens by then, Najib will likely have to look at holding the general election in 2018.

Nothing is certain but the budget, at least, suggests the general election may be later than expected.