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Analyst expects ringgit to slide further
Published:  Nov 14, 2016 3:34 PM
Updated: 7:45 AM

CIMB Investment Bank Bhd said it is possible that the ringgit could depreciate further, down to RM4.80 against the US dollar, in the near term.

According to The Edge Markets, CIMB investment analyst Ivy Ng said this forecast was premised on the lack of clarity of the new US administration's policies.

Ng said the ringgit could touch between RM4.50 and RM4.80 against the US dollar within the next three to six months.

"Since the election, the US yield curve has steepened to reflect the market's expectation of an inflationary impact of (president elect Donald) Trump's campaign promises.

"This narrowed the premium of emerging market yields over the US and resulted in unwinding of carry trades funded in US dollar.

"The ringgit has fallen in line with this trend and the weakness was further compounded by the relatively high foreign holdings of Malaysian government bonds.

"Currency volatility could remain in place until clarity on the new US administration's economic and trade policies are made known. Beyond this however, the decent fundamentals of ringgit could prevail and the ringgit could recover to US pre-election levels," said Ng in a note.

Ng predicted that Malaysia businesses will be net beneficiaries as exporters will be more competitive while companies with assets abroad will also benefit.

The ringgit fell sharply against the US dollar last week. Bank Negara has vowed not to peg the ringgit.

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