An analysis of the ringgit pattern during every last quarter of the year exemplifies that even though the currency remains volatile and people become jittery, it is not going to crash, and will hardly be traded beyond 4.50 against the US dollar, an economist said.
IQI Group Holdings chief economist/investment strategist Shan Saeed said the ringgit would not collapse, instead it would just depreciate against the US dollar as the greenback was getting stronger due to ‘Trumponomics’ and positive energy US president-elect Donald Trump exuded to the financial market.
“Trumponomics describes the economic policies of president-elect Donald Trump. He is an entrepreneur and he knows how to play his cards.
“The US dollar is gaining strength and investors are moving funds in the greenback. It is as simple as ‘ABC’. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note has jumped from 1.37 percent to 2.36 percent in just four and a half months,” he told Bernama.
Shan said the yield of other fixed-income instruments has also perked and attracted funds movement, while that of the Italian 10-year government bond has more than doubled since August 2016.
The LIBOR, one of the world’s most important benchmark rates, has jumped from 0.61 percent at the start of the year to 0.91 percent, its highest level since Nov 2009, he said.
“Sit back and relax. Currency values are determined by market forces.
“I strongly believed the ringgit will soon stabilise and will appreciate back to the level of 4.20 to 4.30 (against the US dollar) within this month or January next year, what is more the benchmark for oil prices has started trading above US$53 per barrel,” he said.
Shan highlighted that besides the ringgit, all other currencies in the region took a beating from the US dollar.
“If you were to look at the chart for November, the Indonesian rupiah declined 3.7 percent, the Philippine peso fell 2.7 percent, the Singapore dollar down 2.5 percent, and the Thai baht lost 1.5 percent.
“Does the currency charts mean that all these governments are bad, or their policies are wrong? The answer is no!
“It is because the US dollar is gaining strength and investors are moving funds in the US currency due to Trumponomics,” he added.