COMMENT Yesterday’s hopeful signing of an electoral pact between Bersatu and Pakatan Harapan was followed by an article by my esteemed fellow writer Zaid Ibrahim, who essentially argued that it was unwise for Bersatu to have stated intentions to pursue a separate arrangement with PAS.

This of course brings us back to the question of whether PAS a) is an entity that one should work with in order to remove BN, or b) should be ignored uncompromisingly as a third party destined to be defeated into obscurity.

A strong argument for option b) is that PAS under Abdul Hadi Awang has already gotten deep in bed with Umno, and therefore should be written off as untrustworthy and unreliable as an ally.

By this point, even I am willing to concede that Hadi’s leanings are more likely pro-Umno than anything else.

Is this alone a reason we should pursue option b) as above?

The long game

I would argue not. The short answer as to why is simply that we must play the long game, and not the short one.

I admit, if PAS themselves decide they will three corner the next elections no matter what, then there is nothing much else for anyone to do.

This seems unlikely however, as really, nobody would gain anything. More likely, if there is no pact with the opposition, PAS will enter into some sort of pact with Umno instead. The long term effects of this are disastrous, and will set us back decades almost.

Again, PAS decides to do this on their own accord, there is nothing anyone else can do. What the rest of the opposition can do however, is make sure that they themselves (the opposition) are not the ones responsible for pushing PAS into the arms of Umno.

Mentality of the PAS grassroots

Understandably, Harapan/Bersatu will need to determine whether PAS is a lost cause; as in, whether they have already ‘secretly’ decided to align with Umno no matter what. If so, then investing resources and time into a pact would be a waste.

I believe however, that this scenario is less likely than many people who simply don’t like PAS may tend to believe.

Understanding this has a lot to do with understanding the mentality of your typical PAS member. These are men and women who have grown up their entire lives fighting Umno. Their disdain for the latter runs deep, and is not something that can be turned completely around overnight.

I believe that if Hadi did really push PAS into a full-on alliance with Umno, he would face an internal revolt that he would not survive. Even his number 2, Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man, has consistently signaled a different direction.

Ultimately, I think that in the long run, we can rely on the PAS grassroots to continuously oppose Umno, for all the right reasons - as long as, and this is a very important part, the rest of the opposition does not go out of its way (the way Lim Guan Eng did in 2015) to anger, humiliate and alienate PAS.

As long as the grassroots remain anti-Umno, PAS will remain anti-Umno.

PAS’ historical cycles

It is also worthwhile to look back to the last two major PAS elections. We remember Nasharudin Mat Isa, the last PAS leader to be strongly associated with pushing an alliance with Umno. Incumbent deputy president Nasharudin was punished convincingly for his stance in the 2011 PAS elections (could have been 2009, if there had not been a three corner fight then), which saw the progressives wipeout Nasharudin and his fellow Umno sympathisers.

The 2015 PAS elections however saw the exact reverse, where all the PAS progressives who had won four years before were in turn wiped out themselves. As far as reasons go, we can perhaps speculate that it was due to excessive closeness/obsequiousness to PKR and DAP, Lim Guan Eng’s incessant goading, and perhaps frustration and confusion concerning these progressives’ stance on the Kajang Move.

In our present context however, I think the most relevant takeaways from these results historically is that PAS is a very cyclical party. They have voted in both heavily conservative leaders as well as heavily progressive ones.

Hadi cannot rule forever

I personally believe that being too pro-Umno was what led to the 2011 results, and not being willing to follow PKR and DAP down the path of madness led to the 2015 results. I also feel though, that if the progressives had stayed in PAS instead of forming Amanah, there is every reason to believe that one day, fortune would have cycled back to favour those progressives.

Even without the leaders who left to form Amanah, I still believe that this pendulum between conservatives and progressives/moderates will continue to swing in PAS. Perhaps individuals like Tuan Ibrahim or Selangor’s Iskandar Samad can still credibly hold the torch for moderation within PAS.

Essentially, the thing to remember is that while Hadi may lead PAS to GE14, we should not take for granted that he will lead PAS beyond that. We should also not assume that he as a free hand to do absolutely anything he wants with regards to which side PAS will align with in GE14. Again, we should not underestimate the power of the grassroots.

Established brands

Coming back to the present, I think it’s fine for Bersatu to try their best to ensure PAS will fight against Umno.

Frankly speaking, neither Amanah nor Bersatu is likely to do anywhere as well as PAS (especially in the areas that matter most) in the elections, based on political branding alone.

Even Mahathir Mohamad and Muhyiddin Yassin as individuals are unlikely to convert rural Malaysians who have been voting Umno/BN their whole lives.

Splinter parties in Malaysia have always struggled, and Amanah’s showing in recent by-elections (as shown by polling station analysis) demonstrate what sadly can only be described as complete irrelevance in rural Malay areas.

Whatever the approach, the struggle is going to be uphill. That said, as it stands today, the simple truth is that no one in the opposition has a better chance of doing well in the rural areas than PAS. This is hardly the case in urban areas, which follow a completely different political discourse and calculus than rural ones.

Succinctly put however, urban areas aren’t the problem.

East Malaysia and alliances

Again, no matter what angle we approach it from, the deck is going to be stacked against the opposition.

The good news is however, that this is nothing new.

As we obsess about peninsular politics, we should also never forget the other continuously underestimated but huge piece of the puzzle: Sabah and Sarawak. Politics there continues their tradition of extremely high volatility, but their mathematical relevance should never be overlooked - strong alliances there could very easily make the difference between victory and defeat.

Indeed, at the end of the day, it will be our ability to build alliances that will determine whether the opposition can make history or not. Failure to do so merely gives Umno a free pass for GE14.

NATHANIEL TAN is sorely disappointed with the Anwar Ibrahim ruling. He wishes both Anwar and family strength and perseverance.