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FOCUS Deep in the Malay heartlands, where oil palm and rubber trees grow as far as the eye can see, there live communities of kingmakers.

They are the Felda settlers, who for decades have been safely relied on to cast their ballots for the ruling BN government to keep the coalition in power.

And as the 14th general election (GE14) looms closer, these heartland settlements have become a new battleground.

In an effort to chip away at these vote banks, the main opposition pact Pakatan Harapan and its ally Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) have embarked on a nationwide GE14 roadshow focusing on Felda settlements, featuring personalities with big names such as former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Their aim is to sway enough Felda settlers to their side, to enable them to win enough seats in Parliament to form the next federal government.

Of the 52 parliamentary seats in the Felda voting districts, nine of those seats that were won by BN relied on Felda votes for victory.

Four of these seats are held by federal ministers, namely Bera by Rural and Regional Development Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob; Bentong by Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai; Segamat by Health Minister Dr S Subramaniam; and Tanjung Malim by International Trade and Industry Minister II Ong Ka Chuan.

Redelineation a boost

Meanwhile, in the next general election, Felda voting districts will also likely give a major boost to BN in two state seats, should the redelineation exercise be approved.

BN is likely to capture Sabai - a Pahang state seat DAP won with a razor thin 117 vote majority - if three Felda districts, Felda Mempaga 1, 2 and 3 and their 2,025 BN voters - are moved from neighbouring Ketari.

The redelineation exercise will also help BN hold on to the Johor state seat of Paloh - which MCA narrowly won with 153 votes - after Felda Kahang Barat and its 1,700 BN votes are moved from Kahang.

Overall, the election data from 2013 show that Felda settlers voted overwhelmingly in favour of BN for both the parliamentary and state seats in their localities.

The lowest support among Felda settlers for the BN was in Kelantan, where support at the parliamentary level was at 59 percent and state assembly support was at 58 percent.

In the other states, support levels were at 63 percent and above, including in Pahang, while the highest was in Johor, where almost 90 percent of the Felda settlers’ votes went to BN.

Marginal victories possible without Felda

Voting patterns show that BN dominated in the Felda zones, but opposition victories in some parliamentary constituencies prove that clinching Felda votes is not the only way to win.

The previous opposition pact, Pakatan Rakyat (Pakatan), won six seats, including Kulai, Raub and Dungun, despite BN having the Felda advantage.

In two of those opposition seats - Kuala Nerus and Temerloh - PAS won less than half of the Felda votes, but when combined with non-Felda votes, it was enough to put them over BN and secure marginal victories.

If the opposition's campaign against BN is successful, even more of the 52 parliamentary seats could see Felda votes playing a decisive role.

"Felda votes will be one of the deciding factors because Felda represents the Malay voice.

"If Felda settlers don't give BN their support, it will be hard for the ruling coalition to hold on to their seats," political analyst Ahmad Atory Hussain told Malaysiakini.

The PAS factor

However, Harapan and Bersatu will face an added obstacle in GE14 if they fail to convince PAS to work with them.

PAS has the strongest presence in Felda settlements, and getting its supporters to vote for Harapan and Bersatu may be an uphill task.

Voting patterns in 2013 suggest that a small margin of PAS supporters were unwilling to vote for other Pakatan parties, namely DAP.

While there was a minor shift in votes for the opposition at parliamentary and state levels across the board, there was increased vote disparity when Felda settlers had the option to vote for PAS instead of DAP.

This can be observed in the voting trends in Bentong, Cameron Highlands, Padang Besar and Labis.

In Bentong, Felda votes for DAP candidates in the Bilut, Ketari and Sabai state seats increased by an average of 3.6 percent compared with votes for DAP at the Parliament level.

However, in the Pelangai state seat where Pakatan fielded a PAS candidate, the number of Felda opposition votes grew by 13 percent.

Settlers such as Suhaimi Malik, 49, say that DAP is not welcome in Felda.

"No need for DAP (to come here), they'll just be a nuisance and trouble people," Suhaimi said.

In light of this, Ahmad Atory believes Harapan will bank on PAS offshoot Amanah to get it support in Felda strongholds.

"But Amanah is a new party. Many people may come to their events in Felda with Bersatu, but they're still just building up support," he said.

Amanah also faces a battle of perception in Felda.

As one settler, Hassan Ismail, puts it, Amanah is "following (DAP veteran) Lim Kit Siang".

With ties between PAS and Bersatu, as well as with PKR also on the ropes, Harapan may struggle to maintain support among opposition-leaning Felda settlers without the Islamist party's support.

Ahmad Atory said Bersatu may be able to steal away some support from Umno - but not enough to clinch victory.

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Tomorrow: What the kingmakers want