Social media research firm Politweet has forecasted that Pakatan Harapan will be able to win Johor in the coming general election only if its a straight fight with BN.

The opposition coalition would also need to effect a 10-point swing in support and win at least 36 of the 56 seats in the state assembly.

Three-cornered fights would most likely benefit BN unless Harapan is able to win over pro-BN supporters, which Politweet said would be "challenging".

This is because Malay voters in Johor, especially those under 30, are mostly pro-Umno when compared to young Malay voters in the other states.

Politweet said that Bersatu and PKR are contesting in the most difficult seats to win in the event of a straight fight.

Bersatu, which is helmed by Dr Mahathir Mohamad, is expected to field candidates in 18 seats in the state whereas PKR would contest in 12.

To mitigate the impact of PAS entering the ring and turning it into a three-cornered affair, Politweet said Harapan would need to win votes from pro-BN supporters.

In a previous research released on Jan 16, Poliweet found that support for BN among new voters had increased based on its observations on Twitter.

As for the predicted leaning of new voters in the peninsula since the 13th general election up to the first quarter of 2017, the research firm found that 45 percent of the voters leaned towards BN, 44 percent towards the opposition and 11 percent were fence-sitters.

It said this was based on its profiling of its Twitter database in Malaysia, which found that users were not expressing much support for the opposition.

Politweet's survey also showed that Harapan can form the next federal government with victories in Peninsular Malaysia alone provided there is a five-point swing in support.

However, the firm said a slim margin of three seats - 112 seats are the minimum required - would not be enough to establish a stable government.

Due to this, a stronger swing of support and victories in Sabah and Sarawak would be crucial for the coalition.