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Analyst: Perception of PAS-Umno ties could sway support in Kelantan
Published:  Mar 2, 2018 7:25 PM
Updated: 11:35 AM

The perception voters have of a PAS cooperation with Umno is a factor that can sway their support against the party in Kelantan in the forthcoming 14th general election, according to a study.

Since the last general election, political analyst Norshahril Saat said, there have been several factors that had weakened the grip of PAS on the state it has held for the past 28 years - and could pave the way for a possible takeover by Barisan Nasional.

PAS had lost Kelantan for the first time in 1978, after breaking ranks with BN and Norshahril said the party would have to draw lessons from its past to prevent a repeat of another poor showing in 2018.

“In many ways, PAS is currently in a situation similar to that which it was in, in the 1970s. First, PAS is currently friendly to Umno, though not through a formal coalition like in the 1970s.

“PAS (also) made it clear that it prefers to go it alone, yet it is less critical of Umno than of Pakatan Harapan,” Norshahril said in a paper published by Singapore's Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute.

“On that, PAS seems sensitive to sentiments on the ground, which are against a formal merger with Umno.

“Its sense of being betrayed by Umno in the 1970s still haunts many PAS members,” Norshahril said, cautioning that the party now risked overstretching its resources across all the constituencies that it plans to contest in.

Amanah a challenge as well

He also pointed out that factionalisms within the conservatives and professionals in PAS in the last two years appeared to mirror its situation in the 1970s, when the party’s conservatives broke ranks with the Malay nationalists.

PAS candidates in Kelantan are expected to face their former colleagues, who are now in Amanah, as well as those from what Norshahril described to be a “much stronger” BN.

The third factor, he said, was the unchallenged party’s leadership under Asri Muda in the 1970s and now under Abdul Hadi Awang (photo).

“There are at present no challenges to Abdul Hadi’s authority.

“For Kelantan, the current Menteri Besar Ahmad Yakob does not have the same standing as (the late PAS spiritual advisor) Nik Aziz (Nik Mat),” said Norshahril, who said Nik Aziz was a strong force against any cooperation with BN during his lifetime.

"Thus, any form of cooperation between the two parties now will be seen as a diversion from the thinking of PAS’ late spiritual leader," he said.

Since breaking ranks with the then Pakatan Rakyat in 2015, PAS has allied itself with Parti Ikatan Bangsa Malaysia and various NGOs under its Gagasan Sejahtera pact.

The party’s top leaders, including president Hadi, had also reiterated PAS’ plans to contest in the majority of seats in GE14.

“These comparisons suggest the challenges that lie ahead for PAS in 2018, but may not necessarily mean that it will lose Kelantan,” he conceded.

At the same time, he pointed out that there were also economic factors that must be taken into consideration in assessing PAS’ chances of retaining the state.

“One can expect BN to initiate many development and infrastructure projects to boost its chances in regaining Kelantan,” Norshahril said.

Among others, he cited Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak’s reported launch of the RM572 million Sungai Kelantan Integrated River Basin Development in Lembah Sireh, on top of the planned expansion of the Sultan Ismail Petra Airport.

In terms of seats, Norshahril identified the Salor state seat as being one of the hot seats, with an expected three-cornered fight involving Kelantan Harapan chief Husam Musa, PAS and Umno.

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