Harapan, PAS to lose seven S'gor seats with new EC borders

EC REPORT | The Election Commission's final redelineation report for Peninsular Malaysia was tabled in Parliament today, marking a victory for the BN, which will enter the 14th general election with redrawn boundaries that favour the ruling coalition.

The new boundaries are a certainty as the EC did not propose any increase in the total number of seats, which means only a simple majority is required in the Dewan Rakyat for approval.

The bulk of the changes took place in Selangor, which could see BN capturing seven state seats from Pakatan Harapan and PAS by virtue of the redrawn borders.

These seats are Ijok, Pelabuhan Klang, Sementa, Morib, Selat Klang, Sijangkang and Dusun Tua.

The EC, after an uproar over its proposals, reverted to the status quo in its second draft. However, the final version is largely based on the controversial first draft. 

The only differences between the first draft and the final version are:

1. Kem Sungai Buloh (BN won by 1,251 votes) is moved back from Paya Jaras to Kota Damansara.
2. Kampung Budiman (BN won by 229 votes) is moved back from Kota Anggerik to Meru.
3. Pinggiran Batu Caves and Taman Selaseh (PAS won by 564 votes) are moved back from Sungai Tua (Old name: Batu Caves) to Gombak Setia.
4. Kampung Raja Uda Timur and Kampung Raja Uda Barat (BN won by 578 votes) are moved from Pandamaran to Selat Klang.

Malaysiakini in 2016 conducted an analysis of the redelineation's impact on Selangor based on the first draft. 

The analysis is reproduced below and updated with the changes in the final report mentioned above.

The chart was arrived at by recalculating the results of the 13th general election by considering the polling districts that have been moved in or out of a particular state seat.

View chart in infogram.

For many constituencies in Selangor, polling districts that favour BN were removed from opposition strongholds and inserted into marginal seats.

The biggest winners after the redelineation exercise are expected to be BN and DAP, while the biggest losers would be PKR, PAS and its splinter Amanah.

This is owing to the clustering of pro-opposition polling districts into DAP-held constituencies and the transfer of pro-BN polling districts to marginal seats, most of which are held by PKR, DAP and Amanah.

Based on data from the 13th general election, the new boundaries will see BN's state seats in Selangor increase from 12 to 19 but it will still be nine seats short of controlling the state government.

View chart in infogram.

However, the dynamics of the 14th general election will change dramatically owing to PAS no longer being allied to Pakatan Rakyat, the predecessor of Harapan.

PAS has also vowed to contest against both BN and Harapan.

Harapan hopes to counteract the loss of PAS supporters with Bersatu, which targets Umno's traditional voter base.

If Bersatu supporters fail to deliver not only seats allocated to Bersatu but also where its allies contest, a hung Selangor state assembly could become a real possibility.

Overviews on other Selangor redelineation changes

Parliamentary seats with a change in name.

State seats with a change in name.

Parliamentary seats with major change in voter population