analysis

Large billboards showing Barisan Nasional leaders have already been put up in Kuching and all other major towns in Sarawak, indicating that the state elections, last held in September 1996, are close.

Outsiders are projecting an easy win for the four-party Sarawak ruling coalition comprising Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu Sarawak (PBB), Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS), Sarawak National Party (SNAP) and Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP).

However, according to the latest assessment by a group of political analysts on the ground, the Barisan Nasional parties have marked 24 out of the total 62 state constituencies as grey areas.

Grey areas are those where the chances of winning or losing are 50:50 which means that they could change at any time to either white (given a 70 percent chance of winning) or black (40 percent).

Two areas - the predominantly-Iban Pelagus and predominantly-Malay Limbang - are marked as black, meaning the chances of the ruling Barisan Nasional candidates (who have already been identified by their parties) losing are to be expected.

The prospective candidate for Pelagus is 24-year-old Larry Sng, the London School of Economics graduate son of Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS) vice-president and corporate leader Sng Chee Hua.

For Limbang, it is the 48-year-old Richard Wong, the corporate businessman son of Sarawak National Party (SNAP) president James Wong Kim Min.

The two fathers have said they are stepping down to make way for their sons.

Resistance

There has been a lot of resistance to Wong from the local Barisan Nasional members, especially the Limbang members of Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud's Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (PBB). The local PBB division has even petitioned the party leadership to nominate a candidate from the party to represent Barisan Nasional "if they want to ensure victory".

Taib himself is known to have voiced the same feelings to the SNAP leader who however is adamant in not giving way although PBB has indicated they could consider a seat swap. Limbang is close to the heart of the Wongs as they were born and bred there and their family business in timber grew from there, too.

Objections to the junior Sng come not only from local BN members but also from the local community, especially the Iban who feel that it is about time an Iban be nominated to represent the Iban-majority area in central Sarawak.

But the PBDS leadership has more or less already endorsed Sng Jr's candidacy so unless the top BN leadership veto it, he is likely to be the BN candidate.

Grey areas

According to the latest assessment on BN's chances, of the 24 grey areas, eight are from PBB itself. This is marked against areas mostly outside of Kuching in both Malay and Bidayuh areas but are known as people closely associated with Taib and so the chances of their candidacies being replaced are considered quite remote.

Among these areas are Nangka (Awang Bemee), Serdeng (Awang Asfia Awang Nasser), Beting Maro (Bolhassan Di) and Gedup (Federick Bayoi).

The grey areas for prospective candidates/incumbents of Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP) are Padungan (party women leader Lily Yong), Bengoh (William Tanyuh) and Kidurong (Michael Sim).

Surprisingly, even the PBDS area, Balleh, represented by Social Development and Urbanisation Minister and party publicity chief Dr James Masing is considered grey.

So, too, Batang Ai, the constituency of appointed PBDS central committee member and assistant minister Dublin Unting anak Ingkot.

Pakan, represented by SNAP vice-president and assistant minister William Mawan, is another 50:50 bet.

The allocation of seats for the four BN parties is as follows: PBB 30, SUPP 17, PBDS 8 and SNAP 7.

They currently control 58 of the 62 seats.

Taib for Balingian?

The same group of political analysts had assessed the BN parties' chances in the 1996 state elections rather accurately. Prior to then SUPP chairperson Dr Wong Soon Kai's defeat at the hands of DAP's Wong Ho Leng in Bukit Assek, the political analysts had declared it a grey area, giving Soon Kai a less than 50 percent chance of retaining the seat.

Taib's political nemesis and former PBB deputy president Abang Abu Bakar, meantime, has publicly challenged him to maintain his constituency in Asajaya as he (Abang Abu) will be ready to face him there.

Taib retorted in return, that Abang Abu was being arrogant as it would be up to the party to decide where he should stand if Asajaya does not want him anymore, in spite of what he has done for the constituency.

It is almost certain that Taib will switch constituency, and the most likely target is Balingian where the incumbent, a close political ally of his, has repeatedly appealed in public for Taib to stand there instead.

On the surface, the elections would appear to be a smooth ride for the ruling BN. Taib, in an interview with a national English language daily, agreed with "talk from the outside" of a 100-percent victory for BN in the coming polls.

But political pundits are not ready to draw that conclusion, pointing out that the strong undercurrents, mainly within some Malay and Dayak areas, where Taib's policies, especially on Malay participation in government and businesses, have been a sore point among many, apart from his own family's growing business involvement in most state contracts and tenders.