YOURSAY | No one can really predict the GE14 outcome as this is a totally new ball game.
GE14 unknowns: Malaysia’s highly competitive polls
Ferdtan: The parameters in GE13 are very different from that of GE14. PAS was in the Pakatan Rakyat coalition at the time, and now a new coalition Pakatan Harapan has an additional partner, a breakaway from Umno, Bersatu, led by Dr Mahathir Mohamad, to replace PAS.
The redelineation of electoral boundaries by the Election Commission (EC) in concentrating non-Malay voters in a few seats has made many less-populated Malay seats more single-race dominant. That was on assumption that Malays would generally favour the incumbent ruling party.
That said, it would be easy to predict who will win Putrajaya, except for one thing. Who has the greater pull on Malay voters, Bersatu or PAS?
The pro-opposition sentiment of the non-Malays, the Chinese and the Indians (looking from the Peninsular Malaysia angle) is almost the same as it was in GE13, give or take a few percent.
That leaves the majority, the Malays. Whether Harapan or BN wins depends on this.
To what extent Mahathir’s party can get voters to switch from Umno to the opposition, and how much damage can PAS inflict on the opposition coalition by splitting the Malay-Muslim voters, which ultimately benefits BN?
No one, and not even expert analysts, can really predict the outcome of the election as this is a totally new ball game.
David Dass: It is ironic. Malaysian elections are so intense that one would think that we invented democracy.
Do our elections actually produce change? Do our elections actually pressure parties to field better candidates and alter their policies and practices to meet the demands of the electorate? Is our democracy strengthened by our elections?
Do we move forward and upward after each election? Or backwards and downwards? Are our diverse people coming closer together, rejecting race-based parties, or moving further apart?
Are politicians more intent on keeping us apart or bringing us closer together? Is the PAS-Umno 'understanding' a commitment on hudud law? What exactly is the role of MCA and MIC within the BN?
Are voters being asked to choose stability over change? Is the threat of trouble a factor in these elections?
Is the opposition coherent and cohesive? Can the opposition create a viable government? There are many questions for us to reflect on. These are only some of them.
Tony Soprano: Free elections do not a democracy make.
WhatNow?: What is clear in this election is that this contest, coming off the back of the 2013 general election and the 1MDB scandal, was always going to be dirtier, nastier and fiercer than any other since Merdeka.
PAS, with its single Islamic agenda, will be the spoiler, no doubt. Which leaves PKR, Bersatu and Amanah to face off Umno in what will be a Malay election, not a Malaysian election, and as such, the intensity of the poll will be expected.
Unlike academic Bridget Welsh, I think the election outcome is possibly more predictable than not.
With PKR's internal warfare among its Malay factions, Bersatu's uncertain status that is already stirring up certain sections of PKR's Malay base, and DAP looking more and more on the outside of the election, the May 9 outcome is actually more predictable.
Malay identity politics remains more or less fixed. And, apropos Welsh, I do not think Mahathir is as big a factor in swinging the poll as what she and others might think or claim.
Malaysia could never hope to "invent democracy", as what commenter David Dass said. As for commenter Tony Soprano, in the case of Malaysia, there is no such thing as free elections. Certainly, this hasn't been the case since the 1969 election.
Over the decades, state-sponsored fraud has taken over elections in Malaysia that "ought" to be free and fair.
And as long as racism and bigotry forge the core of Malaysia as a "society" (a debatable term) and as a "nation" (also a debatable term), as long as politics remains immersed in race, racism and bigotry, don't even dream of democracy in Malaysia any time soon.
Even if there are those like you who are keen to reject race-based politics, the general populace cannot.
Both sides legitimatise their relevance almost entirely (99 percent in my guess) through race, despite one or the other side's claims to still be "representative" of the people's wishes and would rule in the interests of the "nation".
I know who will win, and I know why they will win. Just as I know who will lose and why they will lose. Nothing about the outcome will reflect the election being free, fair and just at any level, except for the political class and the ruling class.
‘Irony’ is the word to describe Malaysia. Along with ‘pity’, ‘deplorable’ and ‘disgusting’ - three adjectives to describe post-1957 Malaysia.
Furious with Warisan, Sabah Amanah stays firm on state contests
Proarte: Sabahans have suffered at the hands of the 'ketuanan Melayu' and 'ketuanan Islam' modus operandi of Umno and PAS. Up to a million illegal Muslim immigrants were given citizenship in Sabah to upset the demographics in favour of Muslims and new 'Malays'.
True Sabahans are sick to the back teeth of the forced colonisation and destruction of their once peaceful and beautiful country.
At a time when the majority Sabahans were non-Muslim, through BN's crooked political machinations, Islam was made the religion of the state in an illegal constitutional amendment.
Sabahans do not want further Islamic encroachments into their lives. It is for this reason that Amanah must not contest. It represents the 'Islamic' face of Pakatan Harapan, and this is not welcome at all in Sabah due to the trauma of its historical 'Islamisation'.
PAS does not have a single seat in Sabah, yet its breakaway faction Sabah Amanah is demanding seats to contest when it has no moral or political right to do so.
Their behaviour suggests that they could be Umno or PAS trojans. They are merely being opportunistic, and their demands should rightly and squarely be rejected.
Headhunter: Warisan, being the new kid on the block, is too arrogant and its chief Shafie Apdal still cannot get off his Umno horse.
He seems to think he can win all the seats in Sabah and wants them all for himself. He needs a wake-up call.
Sarawakian: Amanah has got no presence in Sabah and will lose every seat along with their deposits. A seat given to Sabah Amanah is a wasted seat.
Luckily, Sarawak Amanah had the sense to contest under PKR. Including Amanah for seat negotiations will only complicate things.
My grapevine in Amanah and PKR tell me that Amanah and PKR will most likely merge after GE14 if Pakatan Harapan takes Putrajaya.
Sabah Amanah chief Hamzah Abdullah should look at the big picture.
Anonymous_1419577444: In previous elections, PAS did not stand a chance in Sabah. Amanah, being a splinter from PAS, will be wiped out too.
So, there's no point for Amanah to insist to "commit suicide" in Sabah. Worse still, they may end up splitting the votes for Warisan, resulting in a win for BN (if they are still legal).
The above is a selection of comments posted by Malaysiakini subscribers. Only paying subscribers can post comments. Over the past one year, Malaysiakinians have posted over 100,000 comments. Join the Malaysiakini community and help set the news agenda. Subscribe now.
These comments are compiled to reflect the views of Malaysiakini subscribers on matters of public interest. Malaysiakini does not intend to represent these views as fact.
