Clock ticking against Harapan to turn Malay ripple into tsunami
GE14 | Pakatan Harapan, under the leadership of Dr Mahathir Mohamad, has set off ripples in the Malay community, but a tsunami remains elusive.
With only 12 days left to the May 9 general election, Harapan needs to gain another 10 to 14 percent Malay support in Peninsular Malaysia if it is to stand a realistic chance of capturing Putrajaya, according to a Merdeka Centre survey...
GE14 | Pakatan Harapan, under the leadership of Dr Mahathir Mohamad, has set off ripples in the Malay community, but a tsunami remains elusive.
With only 12 days left to the May 9 general election, Harapan needs to gain another 10 to 14 percent Malay support in Peninsular Malaysia if it is to stand a realistic chance of capturing Putrajaya, according to a Merdeka Centre survey.
The survey found that in Peninsular Malaysia, BN's Malay support has eroded, particularly on the west coast, compared to the 13th general election.
On average, some 7.9 percent of Malays have swung against the ruling coalition as of early this month.
Read more: Survey: Harapan, BN neck and neck in Johor popular vote
However, the Malay swing is not enough to unseat BN, owing to a split in the opposition with Harapan and PAS both going up against BN.
For Harapan to win 100 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia, which will only require another 12 seats from East Malaysia to take Putrajaya, it needs to garner an additional 14 percent of Malay support.
As of April 9, the survey found Harapan's Malay support in Peninsular Malaysia to be at 20 percent, followed by PAS at 27 percent and BN at 53 percent.
However, Harapan is helped by high Chinese and Indian support at 85 percent and 54 percent respectively. This translates to a popular vote of 50.5 percent.
Meanwhile, BN's Chinese and Indian support stood at 15 percent and 41 percent respectively. PAS' Chinese support was negligible while Indian support was at five percent.
This translates to a popular vote of 37.8 percent for BN and 24.5 percent for PAS in Peninsular Malaysia.
Both figures are significantly lower than Harapan's 50.5 percent, but due to the first past the post system and gerrymandering, the popular vote does not guarantee victory.
The current estimates, if it remains the same on polling day, suggest BN will lose more seats in Peninsular Malaysia but not enough to threaten its hold on Putrajaya.
The survey said it was likely that PAS will lose in any seat with less than 80 percent Malays.
Furthermore, in contrast to the west coast, Malays have swung in favour of BN in the east coast where PAS draws its strength from.
It added that for PAS to even maintain 20 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia, it will need to raise its Malay support from 27 percent to close to 40 percent, a tall order for the party.
Despite the gloomy outlook for PAS, the party has decided to contest in more than 160 parliamentary seats, potentially thwarting Harapan's quest for Putrajaya.
Harapan now only has 12 days left to try and pull off a Malay tsunami, which is necessary to overcome PAS' 'green wave' before it can dislodge BN from Putrajaya.
US election survey turned out to different from the actual result. Its all in the people's hand. Lets do this!
Macro statistics can camouflage the actual ground situation. What Pakatan really need is to win key marginal seats won by BN in the last election, at the same time holding on to their own wins in 2013. In seats where BN is strong, let them win by landslide majority. As has been said so many times by so many people, a win is a win, even by one vote.It will be fine where Pakatan wins, let it win by 1000 votes or less and where BN/BN wins, let it win by 10,000 votes.
Pas is a SPENT force! It gain seats before because of PKR and DAP while in PR. Now, they are reduced in size because its progressives and professionals have left and formed Amanah, Pas is alone! It is not sure even to keep Kelantan ! Why talk about be a force in other States ? Even its own home is not safe any more! Merdeka Centre has based its assessment on history! History is dead! Assumption on history has no strong basis on PRESENT events. Has it looked at 1MDB scandals, FELDA scandals? GST 6 % cost ? What about down-to-eart5h issues like (1) cost of living ? Prices of vegetables, fish, mutton, beef, pork have gone up! The Musang King durian, which used to be RM25.00 per kilogram has doubled, tripled and even quadripled ; and is the favourite of Malaysians! (2) Prices of houses and condominiums are priced at least RM400,000.00. Middle-income earners find this price beyond their reach. Where are lower-income earners going to get shelter? Under trees, on five-foot verandahs? (3) GST 6% hurts consumers and businesses. (4) English deficiency among graduates make sthem unemployable in the private sector.Wheer are they going to find work? Wrong emphais on school subjects is the root cause! Teach cookery and tailoring so that students could make aliving as chefs and tailors! Does making History compulsory enhance better employability? Get real! Address these vital issues ! So, what is the mood of consumers ? Be objective!
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