GE14 | In the last general election, both MIC president S Subramaniam and MCA vice-president Chua Tee Yong narrowly won their parliamentary seats in northern Johor, thanks in large part to Felda settlements that were BN strongholds.

Chua won Labis by a razor-thin majority of 353 votes, while Subramaniam retained Segamat with a 1,217-vote majority.

For Chua, his survival hinged on the three Felda settlements in Labis, which gave him a 3,636-vote edge over the opposition in those areas.

One such settlement was Felda Chempelak, which saw 1,251 votes there going to Chua while only 166 votes went to the opposition in the last general election.

A recent visit to the settlement found that it remains a BN stronghold, but cracks have started to emerge due to a confluence of reasons, such as rising cost of living and corruption issues.

Local settler Atan Abu Bakar, who is in his 60s, was more than happy to declare his allegiance to BN but conceded that opposition sentiment was starting to creep into the once impenetrable BN fortress, particularly among the youths.

"I've told the young people, if it is not for BN, who is going to take care of us? Do we want to go back to the old days when we weren't sure if we could eat and the roads were terrible?" he said.

One settler, Zulkifli Mat, 40, said many youths in the community had been influenced to join Bersatu after former deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin formed the Umno splinter party.

Former Puteri Umno leader Normala Ahmad Nasiran, 43, remains loyal to BN but is feeling the pressure.

"This time if we win, we'll win big, but if we lose, we're done for," said Normala, who works as a cook at a local eatery.

Youths revolt

Among her concerns, are young people influencing their families to vote for Pakatan Harapan.

"I've been told by customers, 'I am following my children, they say Umno is not good anymore, too many problems'. These are (those whose children) live outside of the Felda," she said.

She also said some Umno members have also switched sides because of dissatisfaction with factionalism in the party.

Among the elderly, the grouses are also growing, despite their continued love for BN.

Yaakob Md Noor, 64, said he will be voting for Harapan in this general election due to a slew of reasons, including a lack of economic development in Labis.

"Good is good but what is bad is bad. It's been 60 years. We can think. And we think there is a need for change, although we still love (BN).

"I have followed, and followed, and followed, for so many general elections, but there's no improvement," a visibly frustrated Yaakob said.

Chipping in, Yaakob's 54-year-old friend, who did not want to be named, also rubbished attempts by Umno to spook the Malays into fearing DAP.

"They say DAP will get rid of the Malay rulers and so on... We don't believe that at all, but the old people might," he said.

Yaakob claimed that many second-generation settlers in his WhatsApp groups have also stopped supporting BN.

Their anger was not only directed at Chua, but also at Umno president Najib Abdul Razak and the issues plaguing him.

"If he (Najib) didn't get rid of Muhyiddin, things wouldn't be like this.

"He (Muhyiddin) is a Johorean, so there are some state sentiments. I feel that he is a better man than Najib," said Yaakob.

Dangerous position

With Chua's razor-thin majority, even the slightest revolt could threaten his position in Labis.

Chua, a caretaker deputy minister, is going up against Harapan's Pang Hok Liong and PAS' Sarchu Sawal.

On the other hand, Subramaniam, who became health minister by virtue of winning Segamat, is now finding himself in a similar but less precarious situation compared to Chua.

A big contributor to his third term in the constituency was Felda Palong Timur, which gave him 2,936 votes compared to a pitiful 257 votes for the opposition. Even the residents there know this.

"The one that helped Segamat is this Felda," declared Mohd Noh Ismail (photo, left), 55, a hardcore BN supporter.

Located an hour’s drive away through winding kampung roads from Segamat town, Felda Palong Timur is a remote but self-sustaining community with its own schools and petrol station.

An RM20 million upgrade to the local clinic is also underway, thanks to Subramaniam.

Settlers who are in their 50s and 60s, met by Malaysiakini, are fond of Subramaniam, whom they feel takes good care of them. They see no point in voting for an outsider.

"If we vote for him (PKR's candidate) we get nothing, but if we vote for Subramaniam, he will sure be a minister at least," Rani Kesom, 58, said.

Two days ago, Subramaniam announced that 265 settlers there would receive an RM4,000 as replanting aid starting Monday.

But that sense of loyalty to BN is evaporating among the youths, who also try to convince their family members.

Employment woes

For 29-year-old Bersatu member Sadarudin Alias, part of the reason he switched sides was due to difficulties in finding employment, forcing him to look for work outside the Felda settlement.

"But when you want to apply for a second-generation Felda home, one of the criteria is that you must work in the settlement, but what kind of work can I find here?" he said.

Bersatu's Felda Palong Timur polling district chief Mohd Yazid Yatni, 36, claimed the party now has 512 members in the settlement, and including Bersatu's allies, the numbers are at 780 members.

While youths admit it is difficult to change the minds of their BN-supporting parents, many of their siblings are changing their votes.

"All seven of my siblings are voting for Harapan. They live outside, so they know how tough things are with the GST and all," said Bersatu member Mohd Razali Nordin, 36.

Sadarudin, meanwhile, said seven out of his 10 siblings are voting against BN this time around as well.

According to the fourth quarter 2017 electoral roll, there are 4,193 voters registered in Felda Palong Timur.

Of this number, Bersatu estimates that over 900 voters are under the age of 30, while over 2,200 others are under 40.

PAS, too, has some presence in Felda Palong Timur but 59-year-old Yahya Min, a former PAS supporter, claimed many have defected to Harapan.

"(I stopped supporting PAS) because I see there is now cooperation between them and Umno," he said.

Yahya said his three children, who are registered voters in Felda Palong Timur, are also leaning towards Harapan.

This may spell trouble for Subramaniam, who is going up against Harapan's R Santhara Kumar and PAS' Khairul Faizi Ahmad.