The leader of the pro-Umno group of independents who are challenging the leadership of Abdul Taib Mahmud has accused the Sarawak chief minister of running scared by delaying the state elections.

Abang Abu Bakar, who was Taib's Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu's (PBB) former deputy president, said in an interview that the chief minister's decision to hold on until the very last minute before going to the polls would only serve to benefit his group of independents.

The term of the present state government ends on Nov 18. However, the chief minister has earlier ruled out November as a suitable month for polling because of the fasting season.

Abu Bakar, who is also a former defence minister, interpreted this to mean that the state elections will be held anytime between now and October.

He said that the delay in the much awaited election has further strengthened his group at the grassroots level.

"As far as our party is concerned, we have been making the necessary preparations since the end of 2000. The longer the elections are delayed, the better it will be for us."

He said his group, which is fielding 45 candidates, is predicted to win at least 27 seats to form the backbone of the next state government.

Haze-shy leader

The ex-cabinet minister believed that some of the issues in the coming polls include the concern over the return of the haze, which had badly affected Sarawak in 1997.

Another hot issue is the current dry spell which, according to Abu Bakar, has caused water shortage in many areas, and resulted in river transport becoming increasingly difficult and almost impossible in some areas.

Party campaigners in rural areas where rivers are the main means of communication are worried about the current dry spell.

There are some 5,000 long houses throughout Sarawak, and many polling booths can only be reached by boat.

"Further, the present haze does not allow the chief minister to hold the elections soon," Abu Bakar said in the interview with journalists.

"Taib does not like the haze and everybody in Sarawak have not forgotten the incident when the chief minister left Sarawak at the height of the haze in 1997," he quipped.

In search of a safe seat

Meanwhile, Taib said he would let the party's supreme council on Aug 21 to decide which seat he should contest in the coming elections.

He is presently the state assemblyman for Asajaya, which forms part of the larger Samarahan parliamentary constituency which he also represents.

Critics claim that Taib is unsure of the support in Asajaya because of the growing challenge from Abu Bakar's faction.

PBB's Melanau elected representatives from the Lower Rejang area have offered him their seats - considered generally safe, except for one, given the historically strong backing of the community for government parties.

Talk is rife that despite widespread speculation that Taib will move to Balingian, he may actually move to Dalat whose incumbent is PBB vice-president and Agriculture Minister Effendi Norwawi.

Effendi is expected to give up his state seat to concentrate on his ministerial duties.

A possible surprise

Malaysiakini was informed today that PBB's Aug 21 supreme council meeting will only be attended by PBB elected representatives and will be chaired by the party's deputy president Alfred Jabu, who is a strong Taib supporter.

Political observers say this move on Taib's part is also a strategy to decide which of the present state assemblymen from the predominantly Melanau constituencies in Lower Rejang will be asked to step down.

"It could turn out to be a surprise," said an observer.

Since all incumbents are close to him, Taib probably figured that the best thing to do is to let the supreme council members decide.

"It is like killing two birds with one stone," said another analyst.

Ruling BN coalition to win handsomely

The four-party Sarawak Barisan Nasional's chances of winning more than two-third majority are said to be good.

In the last state elections in 1996, it won 57 out of a total of 62 state seats (and bagged another after the court overturned the verdict for Kidurong, and coalition member SUPP wrested control of the seat after winning a subsequent by-election).

Meanwhile, the opposition's chances have been put by the most optimistic of political observers at between 12 and 15 seats, and at worse no more than five.

The coming election will probably see the largest number of candidates in Sarawak's history since 1970 - when direct elections were introduced.

Apart from BN and Abu Bakar's group of independents, Keadilan, DAP, PAS and Star will also be in the race.