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Survey: Anwar leads PD race, Isa next, PAS may lose deposit
Published:  Oct 12, 2018 6:42 PM
Updated: 11:19 AM

PD POLLS | Pakatan Harapan candidate Anwar Ibrahim has the biggest chance of winning the Port Dickson by-election tomorrow, a survey by Ilham Centre has shown.

In a statement, Ilham Centre's executive director Azlan Zainal said the survey, which involved 817 respondents in the parliamentary constituency, using the random sampling method, between Oct 8 and 11, also shows that independent Mohd Isa Samad is Anwar's closest contender, while PAS may lose its deposit.

"The last days of campaigning focus on the pattern of voting among the Malay electorate. It is clear that those who voted for Umno in GE14 are in an uncertain position now.

"Their choice is to either vote for former Umno leader Isa Samad, vote for PAS on the basis of the Malay race and Islamic religion, or, for Anwar, as Umno has been defeated here before.

"Anwar clearly has the support of the non-Malay voters and this cannot be challenged by the other candidates," said Azlan.

He added that the study shows that Anwar, who is PKR president-elect, is too dominant in the constituency, and is hard to be challenged.

"His orderly campaigning, the campaigning mechanism which is centred in all the polling centres, and the variety of campaigning material, can be seen all around Port Dickson. This gives the advantage to Anwar to stand out as the would-be prime minister.

"Based on the survey, 64 percent of the respondents chose Anwar as their MP. However, the question which cropped up was whether Anwar will stay in the constituency in the 15th general election, should he win tomorrow, as he does not have any legacy or sentimental values in the constituency," noted Azlan.

The presence of Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad on the campaign trail to stump for Anwar, has also boosted the latter's chances of winning, he said.

Isa's influence still strong

According to Azlan, the former Negeri Sembilan menteri besar came close to Anwar in the survey.

"Although Isa is no longer with Umno, his influence is still strong, especially in the Bagan Pinang and Linggi state constituencies.

"His familial influence, as well as his personal ties with the electorate there, remains strong in the two areas.

"The majority of the respondents, especially senior citizens and Umno veterans we met in the area, agreed that Isa had really contributed to the development of their areas, when he was the Bagan Pinang assemblyperson, and Negeri Sembilan menteri besar," Azlan said, noting that, however, Isa, does not get the support of the Chinese and Indians, who are clearly in favour of Harapan.

Azlan said that Isa is also set to lose the votes of the younger generation, who do not share the sentiments of their predecessors and are bothered by the allegations of corruption against Isa.

Some Umno members would also vote against Isa since the latter became an independent after quitting Umno, Azlan added.

PAS not getting much support

Azlan also painted a gloomy picture for PAS, which is fielding former Air Force officer Mohd Nazari Mokhtar (above).

This is because the majority of PAS members, especially in Teluk Kemang, had joined Amanah in the last three years.

"This campaigning is mainly facilitated by PAS members from Selangor and Terengganu, while the local, and Negeri Sembilan PAS seem helpless to contributing a win.

"PAS is only moving among the Malay community, especially Umno voters who could pick PAS as an alternative to defending the Malays and Islam. Competing with Anwar, the best PAS can do is to work towards keeping the votes it won in the 14th general election," said Azlan.

"Based on our survey, PAS has failed to garner enough Malay support, and is placed third, after Anwar and Isa, and could face losing its deposit."

Apart from Isa, the four other independents, including Anwar's former aide Saiful Bukhari Azlan, are also set to lose their deposits, Azlan said.

As for the political campaigning narrative, the Port Dickson by-election has been rather muted, compared to the previous three by-elections, he added.

"Despite that, some voters are excited about the development that Anwar could bring after he becomes the prime minister.

"Due to its proximity to Putrajaya, Anwar will try to bring development to his constituency, after having been in Permatang Pauh, Penang, for so long.

"Of all the candidates, only Anwar can promise development. The fact that he is from the ruling party poses an advantage," he said, adding that Isa is relying on the "local boy" factor and his past achievements.

"PAS and its machinery have lost the plot, and is only counting on Malay and Umno votes. The fact that it has fielded a former military man shows that it wants to attract military votes," said Azlan.

He added that that if the voter turnout hits 60 percent, it would mean a victory to Anwar.

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