feature

The hotel industry is a good barometer to gauge whether tourism is doing well or not. It is where foreign currency earnings count the most. Tied closely to its fortune is of course the other sectors of the trade - the airline operators, the overseas wholesalers, the indoor tour operators, the coach drivers, taxi drivers, shopping complexes, souvenir shops and, lastly, the tourist guides.

Even before the Sept 11 attacks which threaten a global repercussion in terms of finance and security, things were already looking bad for the tourism industry, with an apparent slowdown of the US economy and with it, those of European and North Asian, especially Japan. It has become worse since. Foreign carriers into Asia, especially Southeast Asia, have seen a fall in number of passengers.

This has led to numerous cancellations of hotel reservations, according to Douglas Low, a council member of Malaysia Association of Hotels and a hotel manager with a Kuala Lumpur hotel. Hardest hit are the four- to five-star hotels in KL and Sri Kembangan, dealing with cancellations by as much as 30 percent to 40 percent. Beach resorts in Penang and Pulau Langkawi have seen a bigger drop of between 40 percent and 50 percent.

Even the two- to three-star hotels in the two major cities have not been spared, with occupancy rates dropping by between 10 percent and 20 percent within this period.

For European travellers, the winter months of November and December are when they get away from the cold to temperate and tropical zones such as Asia. This year, however, things will be different, largely because of global uncertainties and most particularly the fear of flying. This will be even more pronounced in the case of American tourists who would now rather stay at home than risk leaving their country for their annual holidays overseas.

But where are hotels in Malaysia going to get the people to fill up the rooms?

Singapore tourists

Domestic and Singaporean tourists, hoteliers say. For once, they are counting on the year-end school-holiday season to push up occupancy. Another factor is that Singaporeans who are officially in a recession would probably spend their holidays closer to home - in Malaysia and nearby places like Indonesia and the Philippines.

But recent publicity surrounding the shooting in Johor of three Singaporeans who include a well-known diamond dealer Frank Chew, has led to the Singapore authorities asking their citizens to be cautious about cross-border trips.

However, that is unlikely to dissuade many itchy-feet Singaporeans from visiting the many tourist spots in Malaysia, especially Tioman, Endau-Rompin, Melaka, Kuala Lumpur, Genting Highlands, Cameron Highlands and Penang.

Even when the Singapore dollar has depreciated marginally against the ringgit, it is still cheap for most Singaporeans to spend their money here. For example, a three-star hotel in Jalan Tong Sin selling for RM88 per room with breakfast thrown in for two is less than S$50 which cannot even buy a two-star hotel room in the republic.

Domestic flights

The 2002 Budget gave a sizeable allocation of RM400 million this year for tourism, but of this only RM200 million is for promotion purposes, a figure that has not changed much from last year's.

The rest of the money is for building marinas - and tour operators wonder why such a vast sum is necessary at all for such facilities when more money would be better spent to 'sell' Malaysia overseas.

Again, according to a number of hoteliers malaysiakini spoke to, if Malaysia Airlines (MAS) has its way and domestic fare is increased, it will have a negative effect on air travel between Sarawak/Sabah and Peninsular Malaysia.

The cheapest one-way fare offered by MAS between KL and Kuching is about RM200 for a single person, even though Air Asia offers a little less but on a group fare basis. One agent suggested that MAS cut out all the frills on board and offer only a piece of cake and coffee or tea or soft drink for a flight that takes more than one and a half hours in order to bring the fare down.

Alternatively, he added, the government should help to subsidise domestic fare via cheaper fuel cost through Petronas.

Hoteliers are guardedly optimistic that they will see better room occupancy during the school-holiday season at year-end. Many Malaysians are also reportedly re-thinking their overseas travel plans, partly because of the present state of the economy and partly because of what has been happening abroad.

"Imagine if you are stuck at Kennedy Airport in the US when it has to be closed and no arrangements are made for your meals and accommodation?" one said. This was an experience that many foreign travellers faced after the Sept 11 attacks.

In short, domestic tourism is likely to get a boost in recent months from a number of factors - the seasonal fluctuations brought on by school-holiday time, more Singaporeans preferring to make shorter holiday trips overseas, global uncertainties forcing many Malaysians to change their travel plans overseas, and higher-gear promotion and marketing by Malaysian hoteliers and travel agents.

TONY THIEN is a malaysiakini correspondent based in Kuching, Sarawak.