KATHMANDU (IPS) - news analysis

A young prince once derided for his wayward ways is set to become Nepal's next monarch, setting off a controversy that could again test the centuries-old monarchy that reigns in the world's only Hindu kingdom.

Twenty-nine-year-old Prince Paras, son of newly enthroned King Gyanendra, was officially declared the kingdom's crown prince last week, making him the first in line to succeed to the throne.

The announcement was made as this nation of 23 million people was celebrating the annual Dashain festival, on the fourth week of October.

The declaration of a crown prince would have been a routine affair, except for the young's prince unsavoury reputation.

Local media reports have portrayed him as a hard-drinking reckless young man. Worse, he has been implicated in two vehicular hit-and-run deaths in the past, including the death last year of popular singer-musician Praveen Gurung.

The declaration of Prince Paras as crown prince has been enough to raise the ire of some communist opposition groups.

While the governing Nepali Congress and larger opposition parties, chiefly the main opposition Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) have declined to comment on the affair, extreme left groups such as the United People's Front (UPF) has come down heavily against the new crown prince.

''This is the same person against whom the entire parliament sought action last year when Praveen Gurung was killed,'' decried Lila Mani Pokharel, leader of the UPF. ''He is now the new crown prince. It just shows the palace's insensitivity to the people's feelings.''

Uncertain times

The issue at heart is the young prince's suitability to reign over Nepal - and therein lies the controversy.

Five months after Nepal's entire royal family, including the new King's elder brother King Birendra, was murdered by the then Crown Prince Dipendra, the monarchy is again facing uncertain times.

Though violence in the rural countryside fuelled by Maoist insurgents has subsided markedly over the last three months, thanks to a ceasefire agreement with the government, this impoverished Himalayan kingdom has yet to get back to normal.

The tourism industry, the mainstay of the economy, is in doldrums as a result of the global economic slowdown following the Sept 11 terror attacks in the United States. The shock over the June 1 royal massacre of a beloved king and his family is still prevalent.

At such a time, what Nepal needs least is another controversy, say many analysts.

''The timing of the declaration (of the crown prince) was surprising,'' says Kosmos Bishwokarma, a journalist who has long observed the Royal Palace.

''The prince is after all the only son of the new king and it was understood he would be made the crown prince at some point in time, but no one expected it now during the festival holidays.''

Unsavoury reputation

Prince Paras has no one but himself to blame for his unsavoury reputation.

He has been known to frequent Kathmandu nightclubs and bars and to drink heavily. And in two occasions in the past, he has driven under the influence of alcohol, leading to accidental vehicular homicides.

Gurung's death last year so infuriated Nepalis that half a million of them petitioned the late King Birendra to strip Paras of his royal title. The issue died down after Gurung's wife publicly denied that Paras was to blame.

But only a year after the incident, things have changed markedly here.

Instead of being a fugitive prince, Paras is now the crown prince. The English-language daily Kathmandu Post underscored the changed scenario on Tuesday when it urged Paras to change for the better.

''It is a totally different ballgame for Prince Paras now,'' the newspaper said. ''He should change for the better now for the future well-being of the monarchy.''

Analysts say part of the reason King Gyanedra chose to make his son the crown prince now is to quell rumours regarding the royal succession that has been swirling ever since the June massacre of the late King Birendra's entire family.

Archaic succession laws

Under Nepal's archaic succession laws, only the king's son can succeed to the throne and daughters are barred. The new king has only one son, Paras, and a daughter.

This provision came under attack in parliament recently, with communist groups wanting to amend the laws to ensure that even daughters could succeed the throne.

The aim of this proposal was to bypass Prince Paras. But the centrist Congress government stood its ground, arguing that only the monarchy itself could make or amend succession laws.

The controversy was the reason why it took nearly five months for Paras' father to bestow the title of crown prince on his only son.

Immediately after assuming the throne in June, King Gyanendra had bestowed the title of queen on his wife, but had refrained from giving the vacant title of crown prince to his son.

At the time, analysts remarked that it was Paras' once-unsavoury image that had forced the king to delay the succession issue.

After King Birendra's line was wiped out in the massacre, spontaneous protests erupted against Paras on the streets of Kathmandu.

Second chance

But to his credit, the young prince was singled out by survivors of the royal massacre as the one who saved many other lives that fateful night in Naryanhity Royal Palace. ''Had it not been for Prince Paras,'' Dr Rajiv Shahi, a survivor, said at the time, ''then there would have been many more dead bodies that night''.

Since those tragic days, Prince Paras has tried hard to improve his image. He has become more visible of late, a smiling presence at the side of his parents at all the royal functions and ceremonies. And knowledgeable sources close to the palace say, he is serious about his royal role now.

''He's stopped all the old habits. He is proving to be a fast learner and has indeed impressed his parents in these past few months,'' says a source close to the Royal Palace who wished to remain anonymous.

The absence of protests at Paras being declared the crown prince indicate that the people, too, are keen to give this young prince a second chance. Already, countless advertisements have begun to appear in newspapers commending him.

''Nepalis are a forgiving lot,'' says Narayan Wagle, a political commentator. ''It does not take long to win them over. You just have to try.''

No doubt, the new crown prince hopes that is true.