Sarawak's long-serving Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud, who turned 70 earlier this year, may call it quits possibly before the end of the year, according to political observers.

Health could be a factor, following surgery in Singapore to remove a tumour in his colon that was suspected to be cancerous. His doctors have advised him to keep up regular check-ups.

Another factor was his decision to call the state election in May, six months before the legislature's five-year term ended.

While the Sarawak Barisan Nasional was returned to power, again with a two-third majority (it won 62 of the 71 seats), the result fell short of expectations of a clean sweep or, at worst, the loss of two to three seats.

Opposition candidates picked up nearly half of the seats, predominantly Chinese, contested by the Sarawak United People's Party, Taib's staunchest ally since he became chief minister in 1981. His own Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) won all 35 seats contested.

However the state BN has now to contend with a group of young and well-educated opposition elected legislators - six from the Democratic Action Party and one each from Parti Keadilan Rakyat, Sarawak National Party and an Independent.

Queries ahead

Going by the long list of questions submitted by the opposition state assemblypersons for oral reply during the state assembly's first sitting from next Monday, the government is not going to have as easy a time as in the past.

Many of the questions are directed at Taib, with some pointedly querying his family's many business interests such as Cahaya Mata Sarawak Bhd (CMSB), which has been enjoying many lucrative contracts since 1990.

"They have a finger in practically every pie ranging from forestry, plantation, construction, property development, banking and finance to manufacturing. However, not every investment is doing well," claimed a local investment analyst.

For example, last year the CMSB Board was forced to decide to shut down the steel rolling mill plant and led the company to suffer a huge loss. On July 1 this year, Taib's son Sulaiman relinquished his position as CMSB group chairperson but remains a director.

The talk is that the Taib family could be gradually winding up their business interests - in the family-controlled Utama Banking Group's 32.8 percent stake in RHB Bank (to EPF and Bank of Nova Scotia); in CMSB (possibly to a peninsula-based bumiputera investment group); and in several large property development and timber-based companies in Sarawak. It is anticipated that the divestment could bring in RM1 billion to RM2 billion.

A local newspaper report about the visit of two Saudi Arab princes to look at projects undertaken by the Naim Cendera Group in mid-July has added to the belief that the divestment exercise may not be confined to a few major investments.

Taib is said to be anxious to settle his affairs before he calls it a day in order to avoid squabbles among his siblings and children.

Names in hat

His close political allies also talk about Taib wanting to focus on other important issues, including the PBB elections - postponed for a year since last year - and the succession issue.

Some analysts think that Taib may make a deal with federal leaders that would allow him to nominate someone from PBB as his successor, while he himself would be appointed the next head of state for at least one term. (The term of the present Yang DiPertua Negeri, Muhammad Salahuddin, expires in October.)

About a decade ago, Taib said he was grooming three senior PBB leaders as his possible successor - deputy president Johari Tun Openg, senior vice-president Adenan Satem and vice-president Effendi Norwawi.

Most analysts say the two to watch now are Johari ( right ), a Kuching Malay seen as shrewd and popular with his community, and Effendi ( left ), who has Melanau blood and who is seen as charismatic and smart.

Adenan is said to have had a falling out with Taib whom he once described as his "boss and mentor", and is generally thought to have fallen out of contention.

The picture is likely to be clearer after the PBB convention, expected to be held in September either in Miri or Mukah. There is talk of a challenge for one or two top posts, although Taib has indicated to some senior party colleagues that he prefers status quo .

There are currently vacancies for a senior vice-president for the Pesaka (Dayak) wing and a vice- president for the Bumiputra (Malay/Melanau) wing.

Prelude for Umno entry?

Seniority is not necessarily an entitlement for consideration to ministerial appointments or promotions. Four years ago, the PBB amended its constitution to set up a parliamentary caucus comprising elected representatives and senators who will nominate an elected representative as candidate for the chief minister's post.

Analysts have described the special constitutional provision as offering political expediency for Taib in that the caucus offers an option to bypass obstacles that could arise if the supreme council enters the picture.

Whoever the caucus chooses is also expected to become party leader. It is now said that Taib may find this added provision redundant for a number of reasons.

In his exit-from-politics plan Taib could, after consulting party colleagues, let Abdullah - as BN and Umno head - make the final decision on his successor from a short-list of candidates.

This could be the prelude for Umno's entry into Sarawak in the post-Taib era. Analysts therefore expect the political scenario to go through dramatic change in the coming months into early next year.

There is no doubt that Taib wants to step down, not the least pushed by pressure and growing criticism of his leadership style in recent years.

But Sarawak may end up with a new chief minister who is less assertive and forceful - someone who, like Sabah counterpart Musa Aman, will listen more to federal leaders, especially those from Umno.