analysis
Those familiar with Sabah politics would not be too surprised by Parti Bersatu Sabah president Joseph Pairin Kitingan's announcement that he wanted to return to Barisan Nasional's fold after defecting from the ruling coalition just days before the 1990 general election.However, some are left wondering what exactly had prompted Pairin to swallow the bitter pill and consider rejoining BN.
In the eyes of the local political observers, PBS' intention of rejoining BN reflects the party's desperation to remain in the political mainstream, especially in view of the coming state election in 2003.
PBS won all the 16 Kadazan-Dusun dominated constituencies in the last state election. However, seven of them have since defected to BN - five joined the Sabah United People Party (PBDR) and another two, Umno.
But given that Pairin is also the Huguou Siou or the supreme leader of the Kadazan-Dusun community - which represents the majority in Sabah's rural areas - many political analysts still consider PBS as a party to reckon with.
Nevertheless, the tone of distrust is evident among the grassroot BN politicians on the sincerity of PBS leadership in joining the ruling coalition. They wonder as to what PBS has got in store for BN this time around.
'Stabbed in the back'
PBS, which was formed in 1985, is remembered as a party which has "stabbed its friends in the back" at the time when its support was critically needed.
When BN was desperately in need of support to face the Semangat 46-brokered opposition pact - Angkatan Perpaduan Ummah, or United People Front, and Gagasan Rakyat - PBS decided to turn its back on the ruling coalition.
At about 10.30 on the night of Oct 15, 1990 - when the general election was only a few days away - Pairin announced the PBS' decision to abandon BN, saying that his party was left with no choice but cooperate with the Gagasan Rakyat to form a new government.
The PBS' decision was clearly a retaliation to the federal government's refusal to entertain the party's demands, among others, to set up a university in Sabah, to run a state-owned radio and TV station, to get a higher petroleum royalty, the abolishment ISA, and the return of Labuan to Sabah.
Later, PBS won just enough seats in the 1994 state election to form the government in Sabah, but it lasted only two weeks when three of its representatives defected to BN to give the coalition the simple majority in the 48-seat state assembly to form the new state government.
This slim majority was bolstered by the state constitution which allows the ruling party to appoint six additional state assemblymen.
Impressive victory
Since then several PBS senior leaders have defeated to BN, either by forming new political parties or joining the existing BN component parties in Sabah.
Bernard Dompok, for example, formed the United Pasok Mumungan (Upko) while another PBS leader, Joseph Kurup formed the Sabah People United Party (PBRS).
Yong Teik Lee also left PBS to formed a Chinese-based party, the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP). Both Dompok and Yong have become the state chief minister under the BN rotation system.
After the BN impressive victory in 1999 state election, and PBS dismayed performance in the Likas by-election, there was fears that the party was heading into oblivion. For the first time, BN has won in all the polling centres in the Likas by-election, including the Kadazan Dusun dominated areas.
Under the present scenario, PBS has come to realise that it is fatal for the party to continue to stay away from BN.
If the party miscalculated its next move, it may share the fate of Semangat 46, Berjaya and Usno, all of which reached a dead end.
The other alternative for PBS is to join the peninsular-based opposition pact Barisan Alternatif (BA). But it may not be the wise choice due to BA's eroding strength after DAP's pull-out.
The only choice left is for Pairin to follow Razaleigh Hamzah's footstep to make up with BN and Umno. Razaleigh has dissolved his party and rejoin Umno, but Pairin obviously wants to keep his party.
Some difficulties
Although BN chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad has indicated that the PBS application would be given due consideration, still it is not as simple as it sounds.
There is an agreed formula in BN whereby the coalition would not accept any new member representing an ethnic group if there is already a component party which represent the same ethnic group.
That has been the main obstacle faced by the Indian Progressive Front (IPF), led by S Pandithan, a former MIC vice-president who was expelled from the party 12 years ago after a tussle with Samy Vellu.
As it is now, there are already two Kadazan-Dusun-based parties in the state BN - Upko and PBRS. Their applications to join BN were accepted then because both were the splinter parties of PBS.
At present the Sabah State Assembly comprised Umno (26), PBRS (5), Upko (3), SAPP (3), PBS (9) and LDP or Liberal Democratic Party (2).
As such it would very interesting to wait and see how the BN would go about handling the PBS application if the party finally decide to go back to the BN fold.
NASH RAHMAN is senior analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM) which produces the subscriber-based political report, Analysis Malaysia.
