Sarawak polls: Fractured opposition unlikely threat for GPS - analysts
SARAWAK POLLS | Unless they manage to cobble together a united front at the eleventh hour, analysts foresee that GPS’ rivals stand little chance in the upcoming Sarawak election.
They also predict a lower turnout rate, as out-of-state voters may not be inclined to disrupt their Christmas plans to be home early to vote on Dec 18.
With a host of incumbency advantages, the pressure is on Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) to hold on to its two-thirds majority - which is exactly the ruling coalition’s target.
GPS enters the election as incumbents in 68 seats. The opposition are incumbents in 12 seats of which PSB has six, DAP has five, and one is held by an independent.
CM needs a mandate
Speaking to Malaysiakini, University of Tasmania Malaysian politics expert James Chin noted this was Abang Johari Openg’s first state election as chief minister.
He was appointed to replace Adenan Satem in 2017 when the popular chief minister suffered a fatal heart attack while in office.
Chin opined that Johari, or Abang Jo as is popularly known, sorely needs a...
SARAWAK POLLS | Unless they manage to cobble together a united front at the eleventh hour, analysts foresee that GPS’ rivals stand little chance in the upcoming Sarawak election.
They also predict a lower turnout rate, as out-of-state voters may not be inclined to disrupt their Christmas plans to be home early to vote on Dec 18.
With a host of incumbency advantages, the pressure is on Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) to hold on to its two-thirds majority - which is exactly the ruling coalition’s target.
GPS enters the election as incumbents in 68 seats. The opposition are incumbents in 12 seats of which PSB has six, DAP has five, and one is held by an independent.
CM needs a mandate
Speaking to Malaysiakini, University of Tasmania Malaysian politics expert James Chin noted this was Abang Johari Openg’s first state election as chief minister.
He was appointed to replace Adenan Satem in 2017 when the popular chief minister suffered a fatal heart attack while in office.
Chin opined that Johari, or Abang Jo as is popularly known, sorely needs a thumping victory to secure a personal mandate.
“This is a crucial election for Abang Jo even though he knows he has all the advantages.
“It is crucial because it’s his first election and he needs a personal mandate,” said the Asian Studies professor.
Speculation is rife that Johari may leave Satok, an urban Malay-Melanau majority seat that he has represented for the past 40 years, to stand in more rural Gedong.
Chin predicted that the standard operating procedures (SOPs) for the upcoming election may help buttress Johari’s lofty ambitions.
This is especially if the Election Commission (EC) bans public rallies as a Covid-19 prevention measure, as it did in the recent Malacca state election.
“In Sarawak Pakatan Harapan, the strongest party with established election machinery is DAP... One of their core campaigning tactics is to hold gigantic rallies the night before polling day.
“So with these SOPs, obviously you can't hold these big rallies. So you can't build momentum, it will be very difficult.
“Secondly, the SOPs will benefit the (incumbent) government because nobody will enforce the SOPs in the longhouses and the interior. Because EC’s people will not be there,” he said.
In its discussions with the Health Ministry, the Sarawak government requested for SOPs that are applicable in rural areas where social media campaigning may not be viable due to limited internet access.
Both Chin and Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas)'s Arnold Puyok recognised rural constituencies as fortresses of GPS support.
They did not see this changing despite the fact that this was GPS’ first electoral outing since it broke away from BN after the 14th general election (GE14).
“A lot of the people, especially in rural areas, know who they are, especially those leaders from GPS.
“It doesn’t matter whether they use the BN logo or the GPS logo. As long as the people on the ground know their leader personally, their logo is secondary,” said Puyok, a senior lecturer in politics and government studies.
Even if electoral SOPs were strictly enforced, Puyok anticipated this would impact opposition parties more adversely, especially if they want to try making inroads into rural seats, while GPS would be able to bank on voter familiarity.
Can opposition unite in time?
With nomination day just five days away, Sarawak opposition front Harapan is on track to repeat the same follies seen in the 2016 polls. In the last election, DAP and PKR clashed in six seats and didn’t win any.
There was initially some hope that intra-Harapan conflict would not happen when coalition leaders signed a seat-sharing deal in January.
However, PKR has declared the deal “null and void” and also launched a standalone election manifesto. This was a far cry from the recent Malacca election where the coalition stuck together as a unit.
Chin and Puyok also noted that Sarawak PKR is now a shadow of its former self following a string of defections.
In early 2020 during the Sheraton Move political coup, then Sarawak PKR chief Baru Bian quit the party, as did key leaders like Ali Biju. Larry Sng was appointed as Baru’s successor but also quit in February this year.
The national PKR leadership did not appoint Sng’s successor, hence Sarawak PKR is currently led by two deputy chairpersons - Dr Michael Teo Yu Keng and Abang Zulkifli Abang Engkeh.
Meanwhile, DAP continues to have a testy relationship with Sarawak-based opposition party PSB.
DAP recently expressed a willingness to make way for PSB in several seats but the latter remains openly critical of the peninsula-based party.
Harapan's problems
With all these fissures, Puyok doubted that voters would regard the opposition as a viable alternative to GPS.
“I think Harapan has a problem in terms of leadership; they don't have a strong leader to represent Sarawakian voices, a voice that can unite the opposition parties.
“Even though they talk about a lot of policy issues, they speak about those issues separately. Not as a united and strong voice.
“So I think they need to work harder in order to gain the people's confidence after their loss in the recent Malacca election,” he said.
Chin echoed Puyok’s sentiments.
“If the opposition wants any real chance against GPS, they have to come together. And make sure in most of the seats, it will be one key opposition party versus GPS.
“In Sarawak, in many of the seats, if you have a three-cornered fight with three big parties, 90 percent of the time GPS will win...
“The issue here is basically will the opposition be successful at denying GPS a two-thirds majority,” Chin said.
Aside from DAP, PKR, and PSB, several smaller pro-secessionist local opposition parties have united under the Gabungan Anak Sarawak (Gasak) banner.
Lower turnout expected
Both Chin and Puyok were also concerned about low voter turnout.
GPS has been accused of “voter suppression” for dissolving the Sarawak legislative assembly and holding elections before Undi18 can be implemented. The move is estimated to disenfranchise some 135,000 Sarawakian youth voters aged 18 to 20.
By having polling day one week before Christmas, Chin said many Sarawakians who live abroad or in Peninsular Malaysia may not be able to vote as well.
“By holding the election on Dec 18, it’s too close (to Christmas). They will not be making a special trip to Sarawak to vote.
“So a large chunk of these people will be missing from the Sarawak election,” he predicted.
Furthermore, many have balked at the exorbitant price of flight tickets, which can cost up to RM3,000 for a return trip.
Politicians from both sides of the divide have urged the government to implement price controls on flights to enable Sarawakians living in the peninsula to return home to vote.
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