Talks of Umno entering Sarawak are not new. There have been such talks since the 1960's before Abdul Rahman Yakub became chief minister. In the 80's, there were several Malay groups who harboured similar intentions but somehow, nothing took off.

The last time the subject was seriously in the air was in 2001 with former federal minister and PBB discard Abang Abu Bakar being mentioned as the main proponent to bring Umno into Sarawak.

This week, the name on the Umno mission is Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Effendi Norwawi 59, a confidante of Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud.

Indeed Effendi's future role in Sarawak politics remains the subject of intense speculation following the latest comments by Taib.

The chief minister's first public comments on Thursday upon his return from a month-long vacation has added fuel to such speculations after he (Taib) only said that he had accepted Effendi's decision not to defend his vice-president post in the PBB convention in Miri next month.

Taib confirmed Effendi had met him last month and told him he wanted to give way to a younger man, and said he (Taib) had accepted that decision.

He went on to say that decision was very much part of the PBB's spirit of giving way to others, but was silent on what kind of a role Effendi, who has said he is not quitting politics, would play in the near future in the party.

Taib, the PBB president, made it clear Effendi was not resigning from the party, but merely giving up the vice president post to a younger person.

Time is now right?

One theory that many agree is a strong possibility is that because of his close and strong connections with national leaders, especially Umno leaders, Taib has asked Effendi to help him prepare for Umno's long-delayed entry into Sarawak, which will mean the dissolution of PBB.

It is no secret that Umno has long wanted to spread its wings to Sarawak, according to most political observers, and the time may be just right for that.

PBB is the backbone of the state's four-member coalition. It has 35 state assemblypersons in the 71-seat state assembly and 10 members of Parliament and one senator.

Like Taib, Effendi has Melanau roots, and is considered one of the most trusted by the chief minister. But opposition to Effendi's return to assume a leadershiop role in post-Taib era surprisingly comes not so much from the largest Muslim community - the Malays - but from within Taib's own Melanau group. Taib's predecessor and uncle Rahman Yakub is also a Melanau.

It is widely believed that Umno has never been able to enter Sarawak in the past because none

of such efforts had the blessing of Rahman or Taib and both uncle and nephew managed to thwart such efforts.

However, many are now saying it is only a matter of time before Umno finds its way into Sarawak, the only state where Umno has not set up its wings.

On the possibility of Effendi working hand in hand with Taib to bring Umno into Sarawak and in the process ushering Effendi in to take over from him as party leader and chief minister, a former senior PBB leader told malaysiakini: "That is one strong possibility."

"No doubt, it is a rather unusual way, but no one knows exactly what is going on except, of course, Taib himself,' he added.

Not short of people

According to political observers, another name that has cropped up as likely to play an active in PBB politics and occupy an important party position is Aziz Hussain, who retired as state secretary on December 15 last year. Aziz, 57, is married to one of Taib's sisters and considered a potential state leader.

Taib already has a brother Ali Mahmud, a wealthy businessman, in active politics. Ali is the state assemblyperson for Muara Tuang. Then there is Hameed Sepawi, a successful Melanau businessman and one of Taib's close relatives who has been mentioned several times as a potential state leader. But it is said that he (Hameed) has little inclination for politics.

Notwithstanding that, according to political observers, Taib is not short of people within his own inner group that could play major roles in a post-Taib era in Sarawak politics.

The timing of his decision to stand down and to give way to a new leader depends also on how confident he is in his successor being able to protect what remains of the wide-ranging family business interest in banking and finance, construction, plantation and timber in resource-rich Sarawak which is well-known for patronage politics.

Taib is said to be winding down much of the family-linked business interests, including a big stake in one of the country's anchor banks, RHB Bank.

He appears to have put the family business house in order now, and that it is only a matter of time when he will call it a day in politics, either to retreat from politics altogether or to assume a high non-political post, following the footsteps of his uncle Rahman Yakub who resigned in 1981 as chief minister to bring Taib in and become the Head of State.