As widely 'predicted' by many quarters, Barisan Nasional won the Batu Talam state seat the moment the major opposition parties decided not to contest in the by-election.

However the ruling coalition would still have prevailed in their traditional seat even if the opposition had fielded a candidate and contested in a one-to-one slug-out for two reasons:

One, in any by-elections, the ruling coalition can decisively and overwhelmingly concentrate its resources and machinery at one locality;

Secondly, the above-mentioned strategic advantage enjoyed by the ruling coalition in by-elections is further enhanced by the fact that Batu Talam is a rural constituency where the absolute majority of the voters of all races, unlike their counterparts in the urban areas, lack daily access to alternative news and contrasting views.

Moreover, many of the national issues raised by the opposition like toll hike, inflation, environmental pollution, traffic jam and rising crime rate, which stir the political passions in the urban or even semi-urban areas, are not that strongly felt in the rural settings.

Of course, issues of 'high politics' like judicial independence, detention without trial and other forms of human right violations, intellectual integrity of academics and freedom of speech in the cyberspace become even more 'abstract' to the rural voters, unless there is a really extraordinary circumstance like the 1998-1999 Anwar Ibahim saga where 'the story' is dramatically personalized and concretized in the forms of the sodomy allegation and a black eye.

And since the opposition had decided not to contest in this by-elections, these issues were not raised on the ground during the campaigning period.

Unsuccessful boycott campaign

The issues that predominated in the Batu Talam by-election were of the local and socio-economic category.

Seen in this light, the ruling coalition's victory was not only predictable but also hallow, for the mood of the voters is not that reflective or indicative of the national sentiment, especially that in the urban or even semi-urban constituencies.

So, the opposition has reasons to believe that by boycotting the Batu Talam by-election, it has preserved its resources, energy and morale for the Great War in the coming general elections.

Its hope is further enhanced by what it believes to its success of highlighting, through the much publicized boycott, the alleged irregularities and partisanship of the Election Commission and its chief at the national as well as international levels.

However, the relatively high rate of voters' turnout and low number of spoilt votes do seem to indicate that the calls made by some opposition leaders for the voters to also join in the boycott have not been successful.

Of course, the opposition could blame the Independent candidate and his supporters for causing the higher than calculated voters' turnout, or argue that the rate has decreased from 73.4 percent in the 2004 general elections to 67.32 percent in the just concluded by-election.

It could also reason that the number of spoilt votes have increased, without any significant changes to the number of voters in the constituency, from 238 or 2.53 percent in the 2004 general elections to 385 or 5.38 percent in the 2007 contest.

Yet, given the volume of voices calling for voters' boycott, the changes are relatively not very significant.

Teaching a lesson

So, there is a certain degree of truth in the claim made by the ruling coalition that the call for voters' boycott of the by-election was not effective.

Of course, the opposition's chances of winning handsomely in the coming general elections could still be offset by internal squabbles like those happened in the DAP recently, and/or between the ideological purists of DAP and PAS.

But then, the 'Opposition Wind' could be so strong in the coming months that urban and semi-urban voters just do not care whatever happens inside the opposition parties and decide to teach the ruling front an unforgettable lesson.

Most likely than not, consequent on the victory of the seemingly unbeatable BN, sympathy votes for the underdogs and the desire to check and balance against it would paradoxically increase in favour of the opposition in the coming general elections.

After all, real-life politics is an art with many possibilities, not a science with only one conclusion.