Muda's minister hunt might earn greenhorn party some scalps

Muda’s primary angle for the 15th general election (GE15) is to become a giant slayer - specifically targetting ministers and deputy ministers.

While the “Muda lawan menteri” (Muda fights ministers) gambit might seem a daunting task, some of their goals seem attainable.

Of the four seats Muda is contesting in addition to Muar, data from the previous election indicates the difficulty level for at least two seats is close to winnable.

This is especially if Pakatan Harapan, and by extension Muda, can retain its trend of securing support from new voters, of which there is an influx due to automatic voter registration.

One of the attainable seats is Tanjong Karang in Selangor. While it has been a BN stronghold since 1974, its incumbent Noh Omar has been experiencing a decline in support over the years.

Noh, the entrepreneur development and cooperatives minister under Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s administration, first won the seat in 1995 with a 15,818 majority and 68.3 percent of votes.

However, by 2018 his majority dropped to 1,970 with a vote share of 43.45 percent.

The total number of BN voters has also been relatively the same since at least 2004, hovering between 16,000 and under 18,000, with one exceptional surge to 20,548 in 2013 before it dipped back again to around 17,500 in 2018.

The dip of around 3,000 votes for BN in 2018 occurred despite there being around 5,000 extra votes cast in the constituency that year.

Opposition votes that year were split between Bersatu and PAS - with the parties receiving 15,626 and 7,276 votes respectively.

Assuming the 3,000 votes that left BN that year went to Bersatu and will follow them either to Perikatan Nasional (PN), or Pejuang, or revert to BN - there will be at least 12,000 votes going to Muda and Harapan this year.

With over 15,000 new voters in the constituency thanks to automatic voter registration, if Muda is able to woo enough of them to their side, victory could be within their grasp.

As of February this year, half of Tanjong Karang’s voters are aged 18 to 39 - well within Muda and Harapan’s target demographic age-wise.

Same pattern in Tanjung Piai

A similar pattern is observable in Tanjung Piai in southern Johor.

While incumbent Wee Jeck Seng has not experienced a noticeable drop in support, the number of BN voters has not grown beyond the 23,000 to 25,000 range since 2004.

In contrast, opposition support grew from just 4,431 in 2004 to 21,225 in 2018.

Wee was the deputy minister of plantation industries and commodities under Ismail Sabri’s administration.

Even during the 2019 by-election which saw BN win with a landslide 15,086-vote majority against Harapan, support for Wee and BN remained at the 25,000 range.

In that by-election, Harapan’s defeat was instead due to a double blow of voter anger and lower turnout - with almost 15,000 fewer voters casting their ballots.

Most notably, Harapan’s Chinese supporters voted to punish the coalition after controversies such as the planned introduction of khat (Islamic calligraphy) into vernacular education and then prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s attendance at the Malay Dignity Congress.

However, if Harapan and Muda can reacquire their support and the two continue with their growth trajectory of support from new voters - of which there are over 18,000 in Tanjung Piai - denying BN the seat for a second time is within reach.

But Muda and Harapan must also be able to secure some Malay support to make this goal more achievable.

Here, the youth party may see a steep increase in difficulty as it battles against those with ministerial experience.

PAS strong in Kepala Batas

In Kepala Batas, Penang, while incumbent Reezal Merican Naina Merican won with just 42.9 percent of the popular vote in 2018 - PN will likely get in the way of an opposition victory.

This is because PAS has a strong base in the seat - which secured the Islamic party 23.2 percent of the votes during the last general election. This will likely be somewhat bolstered by support from Bersatu.

Any shot at victory in Kepala Batas will require Muda and Harapan to secure sizeable support from the constituency’s 22,000 new voters.

Reezal Merican was the housing and local government minister under Ismail Sabri’s administration.

Kota Marudu

Meanwhile, in Sabah, there is a possibility that Kota Marudu may fall to the opposition.

Long-time incumbent MP Maximus Ongkili won the seat with a 1,774-vote majority in the last election but his share of the popular vote fell from 47.2 percent in 2013 to 38.4 in 2018.

The win by Maximus was largely due to a split in support between PKR splinter group Parti Harapan Rakyat Sabah (33.2 percent), and Warisan (21 percent).

While Harapan Rakyat is seemingly defunct now, it is difficult to predict which party its supporters from the 2018 general election will flock to in GE15.

Sabah voters - especially those in the more rural areas - have a penchant for local parties and it is not clear how much support Muda has in the state.

Maximus was the minister in the Prime Minister’s Department in charge of Sabah and Sarawak affairs under Ismail Sabri’s administration.

Masjid Tanah

Besides these four seats, Muda is also reportedly eyeing Masjid Tanah in Malacca.

If it decides to contest there, the youth party will likely be the underdog in the Malay-majority seat.

PN is expected to field popular incumbent Mas Ermieyati Samsudin, while speculation is rife that BN - on whose ticket Mas won the seat - will field Malacca Chief Minister Sulaiman Md Ali to retake the constituency.

Mas Ermieyati was the deputy minister in the Prime Minister’s Department in charge of Parliament and Law under Ismail Sabri’s administration.

While support for BN in Masjid Tanah has decreased, voting patterns from the 2021 Malacca state election - where turnout in the parliamentary constituency’s state seats was comparable to 2018 - indicate that the coalition would still come out on top.

The total votes from Masjid Tanah’s five state seats in 2021 put BN’s popular support at 54.5 percent, followed by PN (30.3) and Harapan (15.2)

Like in Kepala Batas, Muda and Harapan must win an overwhelming amount of support from Masjid Tanah’s new voters - around 18,000 - to have a shot at winning.

However, not all new voters are expected to vote.

Besides youths aged 18 to 20, the automatic voter registration system also enrolled every Malaysian of voting age who previously never bothered to register as a voter.

The consensus, for now at least, is that those who did not register to vote in the past are unlikely to be motivated this time around either.

Muda is fielding Danial Abdul Majeed in Kepala Batas, teacher Siti Rahayu Baharin in Tanjong Karang, lawyer Lim Wei Jiet in Tanjung Piai, and former IT engineer Shahrizal Denci in Kota Marudu.

The party will also be announcing its candidate for the Muar seat - currently held by party president Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman - tomorrow night (Nov 2).

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