In Sungai Buloh, Khairy fights for political survival

GE15 | As the general election campaign enters its final legs, the contest in Sungai Buloh continues to be among the most watched of the 222 parliamentary constituencies.

This is because for BN candidate, Khairy Jamaluddin, the stakes are considerably higher this 15th general election (GE15).

In the Selangor constituency, the outgoing health minister is not just trying to win a seat in Parliament, he is fighting for political survival and his future in politics, observers and analysts say.

“If he doesn’t capture Sungai Buloh, probably that is the end of his career. I mean his political future is going to be bleak because the warlords in Umno are going to block him.

“So, it is very important for him to win in the election because by winning in GE15, then he can move forward not only in the party but also in the country,” political analyst Jeneri Amir told Malaysiakini.

Khairy is in a seven-way tussle with Pakatan Harapan’s R Ramanan, Parti Rakyat Malaysia’s Ahmad Jufliz Faiza, Pejuang’s Mohd Akmal Mohd Yusof, PAS’ Mohd Ghazali Md Hamin, and two independent candidates, Sifu Linda and Syed Razak Alsagoff.

Sungai Buloh (previously named Subang) was MIC’s seat, but the seat was lost to PKR’s Sivarasa Rasiah in 2008.

Since then, PKR had been in control of the mixed-raced seat with 66 percent Malay voters, 22 percent Chinese, and 11 percent Indians. In the last election, PKR won with a majority of 26,634. BN lost in every polling district there.

The constituents are largely middle class, including many healthcare workers who serve in the Sungai Buloh Hospital and UiTM teaching hospital there.

Using sympathy card

Schisms within Umno left many party veterans and cabinet ministers sidelined in this general election, with Khairy’s move to Sungai Buloh viewed by political commentators as an indication of Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s displeasure with him.

Seemingly using this to his advantage, Khairy has been upfront on how he was forced to negotiate his own way to Sungai Buloh after being forced to vacate his previous Rembau seat for Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan.

Distancing himself from the poor public perception of Umno leadership, whose corruption scandals turned many urban voters away in 2018, Khairy has also painted himself as a figure who could reform the party, and in turn, Malaysia.

To do so, he must become Umno president and prime minister of Malaysia and, to get there, Sungai Buloh voters must vote for him - so goes his campaign narrative.

The move to paint himself as the underdog, both in the fight for Sungai Buloh, where he described his chances as “pitch black”, and also within Umno, is a clever way to attract voter sympathy, said analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

“Khairy used various sentiments, including the act of criticising BN leadership, which is likely to ensure sympathy,” said the Universiti Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections (Umcedel) research fellow.

“Khairy also highlighted the weaknesses of BN and he said he was an Umno reformist. That’s the narrative he used.”

Awang was referring to Khairy’s confession that some in Umno were tainted and he wanted to cleanse his party should he win in GE15.

This was quickly pounced on by Harapan politicians, who said it proves that BN does not deserve to be reelected into power.

Someone to check Harapan

Even so, Khairy’s gambit may actually be working.

On the campaign trail, some voters who spoke to Malaysiakini said they will change the way they vote this time, to support Khairy’s political career.

Rahman Haris, 49, a self-described Harapan supporter who voted PKR in the last three general elections, said he would vote for Khairy to have healthy checks and balances in politics.

“Nationally, I want (Harapan chairperson) Anwar Ibrahim to become prime minister, but we want people like Khairy to continue to exist in Umno and BN.

“Khairy says he is not a ‘yes man’, and we need a strong opposition. Without an opposition voice, Harapan will become BN too,” he said.

“I am a supporter of Harapan, but I am not a fanatic. What I want is a balance in politics,” said the self-employed man.

He said many of his peers in Sungai Buloh felt the same and that he will persuade his family to vote BN this time, as well.

Khairy also appeals to some non-Malay voters who were abandoned by BN in Sungai Buloh for the past three elections.

On the sidelines of a 95th-anniversary celebration of SJK(C) Sungai Buloh, which Khairy attended, one voter told Malaysiakini she will vote for the BN candidate this time.

“He can do work,” she said when asked why.

Who is more tainted?

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat said voters who repeatedly supported three-time PKR MP, incumbent Sivasa Rasiah in the past, are also moving away because of Harapan’s candidate choice there.

Sivarasa was dropped due to health reasons and was replaced by Ramanan, a first-time candidate and former MIC treasurer-general.

“By fielding an unknown lightweight, PKR is telling Sungai Buloh voters, ‘Hey you, loyalists, support whoever we have picked for you’,” Wong said in a message to Malaysiakini.

“This is overconfidence and even sheer arrogance for independent-minded voters, plenty in urban constituencies like Sungai Buloh.

“The PKR candidate was formerly an MIC leader and his performance in the campaign so far shows no significant difference from an MIC under BN, except the change of colour from dark blue (BN) to light blue (PKR),” he said.

Ramanan started his campaign on the backfoot amid media reports of a previous civil case filed against him involving alleged fraud of RM5.5 million, which was later resolved.

He tried to deflect by pulling out old scandals involving Khairy from 2006 onwards, with questionable success.

Among them was the ECM Libra case, where Khairy’s purchase of shares in the merchant bank right before it was merged with a government company raised questions of conflict of interest, as his father-in-law Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was then prime minister.

Ramanan has also raised the issue of a RM100 million embezzlement involving Youth and Sports Ministry staff when Khairy was minister, and recent testimony in a corruption trial, where an alleged bribe was paid to someone identified as “KJ” in a ledger.

For the record, the witness said he cannot say if this refers to Khairy.

While these have gone some way in showing that Khairy is not without fault, whether they had a real impact on Khairy’s ability to sell himself as a potential future prime minister who will reform Umno remains to be seen.

“In contrast (to Ramanan), Khairy is not only the best performing minister in the Ismail Sabri Yaakob government, but he also smartly turned himself from an underdog to a winnable dark horse by defying the unpopular Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

“He even sells his own prospect of becoming prime minister someday, which would touch the hearts of Malaysians who want generational renewal in national leadership.

“It’s like a contest between an ex-MIC and a reformist Umno. It’s a clear choice not only for BN supporters but also middle-ground voters,” Wong said.

What’s in store if he wins

Sungai Buloh is a mixed constituency with a sizeable Indian minority and has traditionally been contested by MIC.

This might have been a consideration for Ramanan’s candidacy, but Wong said PKR cannot expect all Indian voters to vote for Ramanan because he is the only ethnic Indian in the Sungai Buloh race.

“I suspect the era of ‘voting any Indian’ is gone,” he said.

“So, unless the corruption allegations against Khairy gain momentum, I expect KJ to not only win Sungai Buloh but to win it with a comfortable margin, thanks to the decisions of two party presidents - of Zahid to field him in an originally unwinnable seat and of (PKR president) Anwar to insist on (fielding) an ex-MIC lightweight.”

If Khairy wins in Sungai Buloh, his political career paths are all favourable, regardless of the outcome of the general election, Wong said.

If BN becomes a junior partner in the next federal government, Khairy could be a deputy minister, and if the coalition loses, Khairy is a “natural candidate for the parliamentary opposition leader”, he said.

If BN loses, Khairy’s path to the Umno presidency will also become clearer, with an Umno party election to be held by April 18 next year.

“So, Khairy’s PM dream is perfectly feasible and may take a shorter time span than many people think, given the fluidity in Malaysian politics,” said Wong.

Umno election battle

Khairy’s campaign is not only closely watched to see how it impacts his political career, but also where the battle lines will be drawn in the upcoming Umno polls.

While party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has been conspicuously absent in Sungai Buloh, caretaker prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob and Selangor Umno chief Noh Omar have gone to the ground to campaign for Khairy.

This may indicate that Khairy will not be gunning for the party presidency, deferring to Ismail Sabri to run for the top post.

Analyst Jeneri said this may be a sound move, given Khairy’s defeat to Zahid in the party presidential race four years ago.

“For the upcoming Umno election (to be held in six months after GE15), he (Khairy) may test the water by contesting the deputy or vice-president post. He is still young (and can wait) for another 10 to 15 years,” Jeneri said.

He said by positioning himself as the “next in line”, Khairy can build support among Umno’s three million members and rebuild ties with Umno supreme council members, who can sway votes.

“If he just goes for the top post, he will be dead as people will shoot him. He must know how to manoeuvre his way up,” he said.

But all this hinges on whether Khairy wins in Sungai Buloh on Nov 19.

A vote for KJ is a vote for…

Of all the attacks Harapan has mounted against Khairy, only one seems to have gained traction.

That is the coalition’s catchphrase - a vote for any BN candidate is a vote for Zahid as prime minister and a vote to keep BN in federal power.

Addressing this on the campaign trail yesterday, Khairy pedalled back from the grand campaign of reforming Umno and becoming prime minister, to his plans for Sungai Buloh.

“Don’t have to think of other people, your vote is for me. Vote me in as an MP and I will take good care of Sungai Buloh.”

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