Merdeka Center's projection has Harapan in the lead

GE15 | Independent pollster Merdeka Center has projected that Pakatan Harapan will win 82 parliamentary seats tomorrow.

However, their projection could not account for 45 seats which were regarded as "too close to call".

So far, they expect Perikatan Nasional (PN) to come in second with 43 seats followed by Gabungan Parti Sarawak with 24.

Merdeka Center only called 15 seats for BN.

"In the ensuing campaign period, we noted there was a discernible movement of Malay voters to PN and to a lesser extent, Harapan. This development was at the expense of BN.

"For the most part, non-Malay voters remained firmly in support of Harapan," said the firm.

Between Nov 16 and 18, Merdeka Center found respondents were mostly supportive of Harapan (33.6 percent), followed by Perikatan Nasional (20.3) and BN (15.4).

"We note that as many as 29 percent of voters refused to disclose their choices. From experience, we think it is likely that most of these undisclosed responses are likely to choose an opposition party," it said.

The firm estimated that during the Malacca and Johor elections, those who refused to disclose their responses mostly voted for PN (55 percent), followed by BN (30) and Harapan (15).

This survey was conducted between Nov 3 and 18. It involved 5,497 Malaysian voters aged 18 and above from Peninsular Malaysia only.

Respondents were selected based on random stratified sampling involving voters from 165 constituencies in Peninsular Malaysia.

Projections for Sabah and Sarawak were extrapolated from past surveys, state election results, and qualitative research in the two states.

Merdeka Center's projections do not include Padang Serai as the election for this seat has been postponed.

Preferred PM

The firm noted that Harapan’s Anwar Ibrahim was the preferred choice for prime minister among 32.6 percent of respondents, followed by PN’s Muhyiddin Yassin (25.5) and BN’s Ismail Sabri Yaakob (16.6).

However, Anwar was the least preferred choice among Malay voters, who mostly preferred Muhyiddin.

The survey also found that 77 percent of respondents have indicated they will vote, without many significant differences among major ethnic groups.

"Although there may be a certain margin of error in these figures, the overall trend indicates rising interest in the election and growing intention to vote," said Merdeka Center.

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COMMENT | Life under Harapan, Umno-Baru, or PN? You choose